Earlier this month, Amsterdam narrowly escaped catastrophic flooding.
Storm Ciarán dumped a lot rain on the Dutch capital, which lies two metres under sea stage, that folks near the town’s primary waterway noticed water lapping towards their souterrain home windows. The NRC, one of many Netherland’s newspapers of report, reported one resident joked he may see ”fish swimming by.”
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Pieter Omtzigt has been in politics greater than 20 years — first as an MP with the centre-right CDA, now as chief of the breakaway New Social Contract, based in August (Picture: Wikimedia)
The one factor that prevented an atypical November morning morphing right into a calamity had been only a few males pushing the flood-control buttons (and promptly fixing a malfunctioning sluice).
This in some way displays what the Netherlands in 2023 is all about: a rustic in denial that, by a hair’s breadth, plus a practice of punctiliousness, scrapes by and prevents public companies from breaking down completely — regardless of years of neglect and austerity imposed by prime minister Mark Rutte’s first three governments.
I say denial as a result of the capital’s near-flooding barely acquired any media consideration in any respect exterior of that NRC article — revealed two weeks later.
The truth is, local weather change (or flood safety) just isn’t a outstanding election subject amongst lead contenders in any respect this yr. Out of the 4 prime polling events, local weather change solely options prominently within the Labour-Inexperienced marketing campaign led by former EU heavyweight Frans Timmermans, who was Inexperienced Deal commissioner earlier than leaving Brussels to return to Dutch politics in August.
As EUobserver beforehand reported, one of many buzzwords defining these elections is ’bestaanszekerheid,’ a time period that interprets to ”livelihood safety.” A subject Labour-Inexperienced historically excels in and has now promised to rebuild by investing extra within the welfare state.
Livelihood safety is set by greater than earnings and work; it will depend on a set of interconnected and interdependent belongings and situations that make up a life value residing.
This contains inexpensive housing and social capital gained from intact native communities that want issues like respectable healthcare, training or a park bench to maintain it. Issues Timmermans has promised to speculate extra in.
His occasion, a brand new coalition between the Inexperienced Left and the Dutch Labour Get together (PvdA), briefly shot up within the polls when the brand new alliance was introduced in August.
That instantly made him a contender for the highest spot. And when he attended the annual congress of the European Socialists in Málaga simply over every week in the past, he was hailed because the Netherlands’ new prime minister in all however identify.
However all just isn’t properly on the socialist entrance.
’Timmermans Impact’ not working?
”It is clear that the marketing campaign is not progressing in the way in which [the new left] anticipated,” political scientist Simon Otjes advised EUosberver.
The hoped-for ’Timmermans-effect’, that resulted in a doubling of the Socialist & Democrats vote within the 2019 European Parliamentary elections has not translated again to the nationwide stage. Like in earlier campaigns, the EU has barely featured as a subject throughout these elections, making it harder for Timmermans to level to previous successes.
”The EU historically is an unpopular election subject. The cliché has it that voters have a tendency to vary channels if the EU is talked about,” mentioned Otjes.
Within the last stretch of the Dutch elections, the narrative has taken maintain that the previous Inexperienced Deal chief just isn’t pulling his weight (pun not supposed, though Timmermans’ weight has been the butt of jokes on nationwide tv on a number of events.)
His occasion — now polling at 16 % — is again on the stage it was earlier than the events merged and he introduced his candidacy.
He’s now projected to rank fourth this week, trailing the liberal VVD (caretaker prime minister Mark Rutte’s occasion now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius), the brazenly anti-Islam Get together for Freedom led by Geert Wilders and the New Social Contract, a breakaway occasion based solely in August by Pieter Omtzigt, a former long-serving member of parliament for the centre-right CDA.
Regardless that Omtzigt has been in politics for over 20 years, he has efficiently managed to launch a ”challenger marketing campaign,” mentioned Otjes.
”The Netherlands historically has had a centre-right majority,” he mentioned. The one time it has had a solidly leftwing authorities was within the mid-Seventies.
The way in which Labour has historically handled that reality has primarily consisted of the identical two substances for many years.
First, by positioning itself as the one possible leftwing various capable of govern. And second: by centring the marketing campaign round who will turn out to be prime minister.
The dynamic the Inexperienced Labour marketing campaign crew had clearly hoped for, nevertheless, has not materialised and is now as a substitute characterised by a challenger versus the institution, which places the highly-experienced Timmermans at an obstacle.
”Omtzigt has fully altered the political panorama,” he mentioned.
Who is definitely ’the outsider’?
The dearth of enthusiasm for Timmermans could, partially, be ascribed to voters searching for a special face fairly than confirmed management.
But Yeşilgöz-Zegerius leads a celebration that has been in energy for 26 out of the previous 29 years — a reality she expertly has managed to hide throughout debates.
Omtzigt, the primary challenger, has been in politics for over 20 years and is the second-longest-sitting MP and one of the skilled politicians within the nation.
In the meantime, Wilders, who desires the Netherlands to go away the EU, is at present polling because the primary in some forecasts.
Wilders, whom no person needed to ask into authorities for years, has modified his tune considerably to seem ’milder’ and enhance his possibilities of governing. He additionally positions himself as an outsider. The truth is, he’s now the longest-sitting MP within the 150-seat parliament.
But it was Timmermans who was attacked in a televised debate by the entire above for being the perennial insider — someone who, as Wilders described it, has ”misplaced grip on actuality.”
Intellectually, many social democrats could have anticipated these elections to really feel extra like a house sport. ”We will undoubtedly beat them,” one campaigner advised EUobserver anonymously, referring to the far-right.
And there’s a perception that leftwing matters are common.
Timmermans campaigned on a ticket to lift the minimal wage, defend the local weather and lift taxes for multinational companies and shareholders, proposals ostensibly not a tough promote in one of the unequal nations in Europe.
However with polling numbers trending down, a vocal group of (former) occasion members are panicking, calling out Timmermans on social media for being too centrist, though it’s unclear whether or not that might shift the steadiness at this late stage.
”The left, to a level, has misplaced its contact on topics regarding the welfare state and safety of livelihood,” mentioned Andrej Zaslove, an assistant professor of comparative politics at Radboud College. Labour continues to be blamed for the austerity imposed by Rutte’s second authorities, which included the Labour Get together then led by Diederik Samsom, who later grew to become Timmermans’ cupboard chief in Brussels.
An additional problem dealing with the left is that ’bestaansrecht’, the phrase meant to encapsulate the social democratic beliefs right into a bitesize bit, has misplaced which means.
Final Thursday night time (16 November) the highest 4 candidates confronted one another, to debate their plans for the nation’s future.
Though the talk shortly devolved right into a confused and shameful mud-slinging contest, it grew to become clear that every one main events had annexed ’bestaanszekerheid’ because the central marketing campaign theme — simply decoding it otherwise.
Whereas the VVD applies the time period to imply decrease taxes for ”hard-working folks,” the liberal-left D66 associates it with the correct to find out the tip of life.
Wilders has promised to scrap medical health insurance prices — a promise his opponents say lacks monetary backing — and Omtzigt retains repeating the phrase, though its which means is considerably elusive.
”I’ve no clue what he means with it,” Zaslove advised EUobserver.
However that won’t matter that a lot for normal voters. ”They belief him. People who find themselves typically distrustful of politicians consider he isn’t the sort that likes to be pushed round by a chauffeur,” mentioned Otjes.
”A lot can nonetheless change within the last days earlier than the elections,” added Otjes, a view echoed by most polling specialists. With Wilders now a contender for the highest spot, Timmermans, who has repeatedly mentioned ”he doesn’t need to get up in a rustic the place [Wilders party] is primary,” could appeal to strategic anti-Wilders votes.
”I count on that we’ll see extra strategic votes,” mentioned Peter Kanne, senior researcher at I&O Analysis, one of many principal Dutch polling companies.
”Within the earlier elections, it leaned in direction of D66 and Sigrid Kaag; this time, it may go in direction of GreenLeft-PvdA. I count on a small shock on the left,” he mentioned.