Taiwan’s election had proven the world that “between democracy and authoritarianism, we’ll stand on the facet of democracy,” Lai, who has been vice chairman since 2020, mentioned in a victory speech on Saturday. “I wish to thank the Taiwanese folks for writing a brand new chapter in our democracy,” he mentioned.
He secured 40 p.c of the vote in comparison with 33 p.c for Hou Yu-ih, the candidate from the opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist Get together. The race was made unusually shut by the recognition of a 3rd candidate, Ko Wen-je, from the a lot smaller Taiwan Folks’s Get together, who acquired 26 p.c of the vote.
The 64-year-old Harvard-educated former physician, who additionally goes by William, will take workplace in Might, extending the eight-year rule of his celebration for an unprecedented third time period.
Internationally, Lai’s presidency will seemingly be judged by how properly he manages an more and more bellicose Beijing and whether or not he can avert a significant disaster within the area.
The Chinese language Communist Get together has by no means dominated Taiwan however claims the self-governing island of 23 million as a part of its territory and commonly threatens to take management by pressure if Taipei ever formally guidelines out “unification.”
Xi Jinping, the strongman chief of China who promotes grand narratives of nationwide “rejuvenation,” has dramatically escalated navy exercise round Taiwan lately and dominated unification an “inevitability.”
Within the marketing campaign, Lai forged himself because the secure and acquainted option to fend off Hou, who advocated compromise with Beijing to ease tensions. He repeatedly promised to proceed the strategy of President Tsai Ing-wen, who’s stepping down having fulfilled a two-term restrict, underscoring how influential his predecessor has been in shaping Taiwan’s protection and international coverage debate.
Like Tsai, Lai maintains he’s open to speaking with Xi however solely as equals. He has urged Beijing to rethink the strain techniques however says he “harbors no illusions” about its intentions.
As an alternative of making an attempt to please Beijing, Lai has mentioned he’ll deal with securing Taiwan’s international standing by strengthening ties with United States and different pleasant democracies. He needs to proceed navy reforms, shield politics from interference and safe the financial system from coercion.
That agenda will probably be hamstrung by the DPP dropping its majority within the legislature. The Kuomintang’s capacity to dam Lai will make him look fragile to Beijing, which can use “strain techniques” within the hope of unseating him on the subsequent election, mentioned Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow on the Atlantic Council.
Beijing has made abundantly clear its dislike of Lai. Chinese language officers contemplate him a “separatist” for his views on Taiwan’s sovereignty and has mentioned he would deliver “extreme hazard” to cross-strait relations.
“The Chinese language Communist Get together management will certainly say that Lai is worse than Tsai,” mentioned Shelley Rigger, an professional on Taiwanese politics at Davidson School.
China’s leaders are wedded to a method of “perpetual escalation,” she mentioned, and “for them to acknowledge that any DPP chief will not be an existential risk would really feel like stepping again from commitments they made.”
China’s navy strain marketing campaign has fueled considerations of miscalculation that might spark battle and attract the USA. Analysts are watching intently to see if Beijing responds to Lai’s victory with large-scale drills that might ship tensions spiraling.
Consultants on Taiwanese politics worry Beijing has way back made up its thoughts about Lai, regardless of his efforts to distance himself from his previous advocacy for formal independence.
Taiwan exists in a type of grey zone — it has its personal authorities, its personal passport and its personal distinct identification. However due to objections from China, it has diplomatic relations with solely 13 nations and doesn’t have a proper seat on the United Nations or different worldwide our bodies. Many governments, together with the USA, nonetheless, keep sturdy unofficial ties with Taipei.
It has loved de facto sovereignty for 75 years with out pushing for the outright separation that Beijing strongly objects to.
Not like Tsai, who was a profession bureaucrat and worldwide commerce negotiator initially thought of an outsider by many within the DPP, Lai rose to prominence within the days when the celebration overtly supported Taiwan’s formal independence.
‘Pragmatic employee for Taiwan independence’
Lai’s political profession started and took off in Tainan, a seaside metropolis in south Taiwan that has lengthy been a stronghold for the celebration.
As a younger lawmaker after which the favored mayor of Tainan from 2010 to 2017, Lai grew to become a distinguished determine within the celebration’s “new tide” faction that when pushed for a clause on Taiwan independence to be included within the celebration constitution.
When appointed premier in 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic employee for Taiwan independence” and that he would at all times maintain that objective.
By the marketing campaign, his previous statements have been utilized by Beijing and the principle opposition celebration Kuomintang to say he’ll upend the delicate agreements between Beijing, Taipei and Washington that for many years stored the peace.
However his supporters say these critics misinterpret Lai’s stance by specializing in the “independence” a part of that formulation. “He was simply saying that he’s a really pragmatic individual and views cross-strait relations in a realistic approach,” mentioned Yeh Tse-shan, deputy mayor of Tainan, who labored alongside Lai for seven years there.
On the marketing campaign path, Lai careworn that he has no plan to declare independence. Taiwan, he says, is already sovereign underneath its official identify, the Republic of China, and there’s no must formalize the separation and danger a Chinese language invasion.
Beijing — and, to a lesser extent, Washington — could be involved about Lai’s early advocacy, however he isn’t seen as prone to push the envelope among the many elders of the hardcore Taiwan independence motion.
The DPP has “modified from a corporation main political reforms to an election machine,” mentioned Yao Chia-wen, chairman of the celebration from 1987 to 1988. “These in workplace don’t wish to trigger hassle. Neither will Lai,” he mentioned.
Even when youthful generations more and more establish as Taiwanese — not Chinese language — and take democratic freedoms as a given, the overwhelming majority help “sustaining the established order” in relation to relations with Beijing, surveys present.
Some analysts fear Lai will lack the self-discipline Tsai demonstrated when speaking about relations with Beijing.
“One of many issues that helped Tsai rather a lot was her excessive steadiness,” however Lai’s background in political campaigning makes him “extra of a talker” and will undermine his capacity to remain on message, mentioned Rigger.
A historical past of difficult authoritarian regimes
Born in a poor neighborhood of New Taipei Metropolis, Lai’s life started with tragedy. The youngest of 5 youngsters, his father died in a mining accident when he was three months outdated.
After attending the distinguished Nationwide Taiwan College and shifting to Tainan to change into a physician, he was caught up within the mental ferment of the Nineties, a heady time in Taiwanese politics that shut associates say left him with a quiet dedication to problem perceived injustices.
The Kuomintang had dominated Taiwan as a one-party state for 4 a long time after dropping the Chinese language civil warfare to the Communists and fleeing to the island in 1949. When martial legislation resulted in 1987, the democracy motion took off, and Lai determined he couldn’t sit on the sidelines.
“Intellectuals at the moment had been obsessed with overthrowing the Kuomintang’s authoritarian system,” mentioned Lu Wei-yin, a Tainan metropolis councilor who labored with Lai within the 2000s.
Early on, Lai was idealistic and fairly severe about his work. Shut associates from his Tainan days describe him as solemn and targeted on the minutia of insurance policies.
He nearly at all times wore a swimsuit and would name out colleagues for underdressing. The one time he actually appeared to chill out was when speaking about his — and arguably Taiwan’s — favourite sport: Baseball.
Regardless of being softly spoken, he didn’t draw back from fights as a younger lawmaker. In 2005, when the Kuomintang blocked his celebration’s proposal for Taiwan to purchase extra weapons from the USA, Lai was filmed hurling insults on the ground of parliament.
“When he thinks one thing isn’t proper, he has to do one thing,” Lu mentioned.
That must remonstrate has often landed Lai in scorching water. In 2014, on his first journey to China, he precipitated a stir by overtly defending his celebration’s place on Taiwan independence to his Chinese language hosts.
A Chinese language scholar recommended the DPP freeze the Taiwan independence clause within the celebration constitution to facilitate talks with Beijing — a proposal resurfaced in current months by the Kuomintang and distinguished American teachers.
His celebration didn’t create the will for separation from China, Lai replied, and suspending the clause wouldn’t assist Beijing resolve the core cause Taiwanese don’t wish to be dominated by Beijing. “Assist for Taiwan independence in society got here first,” he mentioned, “then got here the DPP.”
Meaghan Tobin in Taipei, Taiwan contributed to this report.