Tense EU-China summit showdown unlikely to bear fruit

Whereas the agenda accommodates no surprises, that doesn’t make it any simpler for each side to search out some type of consensus. European and Chinese language leaders will focus on the warfare in Ukraine, the state of affairs within the Center East, commerce imbalances,financial safety, Taiwan, human rights and world challenges equivalent to local weather change.

Nevertheless, regardless of this being the primary in-person summit in 4 years, since earlier than Covid, no joint assertion reflecting areas of widespread understanding will probably be issued on the finish of the talks — as was the case on the two earlier summits.

Not having a joint assertion was already anticipated by the EU, as relations with China are these days extra advanced than they was. And though there won’t be any ’deliverable’ in such a format, there are points the place each side can go additional, an EU spokesperson advised EUobserver.

In the meantime, China and the EU don’t share the identical views on worldwide and regional points, overseas minister Wang Yi stated at a gathering with EU diplomatic envoys in Beijing on Monday, based on the Chinese language information company Xinhua.

”Solely by adhering to communication and coordination can we play a constructive position in sustaining world peace and stability and addressing world challenges,” Wang stated.

The EU is sustaining its strategy of current years in direction of China, which is concurrently labelled by Brussels as ”a associate for cooperation and negotiation, an financial competitor and a systemic rival”.

Member states have imbalances in vitality, chemical substances, equipment and autos, amongst others, and the EU’s complete commerce deficit rose to virtually €400bn in 2022. That yr, all EU international locations besides Eire had a commerce deficit with China, which is the EU’s largest associate for imports of products.

”European leaders won’t tolerate over time an imbalance within the commerce relationship,” von der Leyen advised AFP in an interview forward of the summit in Beijing.

”We’ve got instruments to guard our market, however we choose to have negotiated options,” she added.

And at this high-level dialogue, European leaders will reiterate to their Chinese language counterparts that the EU doesn’t intend to chop its financial ties with China, however to diversify its suppliers and scale back its vital dependencies (the so-called ’de-risking, not decoupling’ technique).

”In Chinese language eyes, we’re nearer to one another, however possibly to not the case for the Europeans, since you see us as systemic rivals hastily,” Chinese language diplomat Ma Keqing stated, throughout a current Buddies of Europe discussion board.

China’s distrust stems partially from EU strikes equivalent to Brussels’ investigation into Beijing’s state subsidies for its electrical car (EV) market, or from Dutch export-controls on merchandise equivalent to semiconductors.

But it surely’s additionally because of the record of vital applied sciences that Brussels introduced in October, to guard itself from overseas powers — though the fee didn’t explicitly title China.

’Does not make sense’

”If the EU imposes extreme restrictions on the export of high-tech merchandise to China on the one hand, and hopes to considerably improve exports to China on the opposite, I am afraid it would not make sense,” overseas ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stated.

For the EU-27, the rationale is to make sure a stage enjoying discipline, and their officers make it clear that the investigation into Chinese language EVs is just concentrating on state subsidies which can be seen as giving an unfair benefit to Chinese language business.

Beijing’s underlying concern is that the European bloc will align itself with the extra protectionist US, with which it’s difficult for the place of the world’s largest financial energy.

That is significantly the case because the Asian big is experiencing an financial slowdown, which implies that its customers have much less cash to spend at residence and due to this fact the nation must export extra overseas.

From the EU’s perspective, the summit reads extra like a continuation of dialogue and the stabilisation of relations between the 2 blocs amid rising geopolitical and economic-trade tensions, relatively than a second for stand-out outcomes or breakthroughs.

Certainly, EU officers cited the record of various talks with China on the economic system, local weather change and human rights as a part of the concrete outcomes achieved in current months.

Throughout the two-day assembly, the EU may even proceed to push for China to change into extra engaged in Ukraine and use its affect to get Russia to cease the warfare, an EU official advised reporters forward of the summit.

The EU is effectively conscious that China just isn’t snug with this warfare, however will hold sending the identical message to Chinese language firms relating to circumventing sanctions.

As Xi has a ’no limits’ partnership with Russian chief Vladimir Putin, the warfare in Ukraine will probably be a precedence for European leaders, with the goal of guaranteeing that China doesn’t assist Russia additional, EU officers stated.

The summit is available in a yr stuffed with visits to Xi’s nation by senior EU officers, together with von der Leyen herself in April, commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in September and Borrell in October.

2023 has additionally been crammed with numerous high-level dialogues between China and the EU, together with the resumption of the (low-level) human rights dialogue — described as ’meaningless’ by advocates equivalent to Human Rights Watch (HRW).

In June, EU leaders shared their considerations about human rights in China, however did not element a method to deal with Beijing’s alarming rights document, HRW stated in a December 4 letter to von der Leyen and Michel.

”The EU should not deal with human rights as a tick-the-box train, however be ready to take actions that match the urgency and magnitude of Beijing’s extreme repression throughout the nation,” EU director at HRW Philippe Dam stated.

”A Chinese language authorities that crushes its peoples primary rights won’t be a dependable and accountable associate,” Dam added.

Furthermore, member states are presently deciding their place on an EU regulation that might ban merchandise made with compelled labour from the EU single market.

However relating to state-imposed compelled labour, which impacts an estimated 3.9 million folks worldwide (together with Uyghurs in China’s Xianjiang area), neither the fee nor member states seem like proposing ”an ample investigation or enforcement mechanism” to uncover such circumstances, commerce unions and civil society organisations identified final week.

”It is vital that the EU adopts strong prohibition of imports and exports which can be linked to compelled labour”, Tirana Hassan, govt director at HRW, advised reporters on Monday.

”And we must be interested by acknowledged imposed compelled labour as a result of this can really assist us handle the Chinese language authorities’s use of Uyghur compelled labour inside and out of doors Xinjiang,” she added.