Senate Democrats face steep odds in making an attempt to carry majority in November

The percentages are stacked in opposition to Senate Democrats this fall, as they attempt to hold onto their razor-thin majority in November. Not solely will they must defend 22 incumbent seats, many in Republican-leaning states, however they can even must offset the lack of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, who introduced his retirement from the Senate final 12 months. 

West Virginia is among the reddest states within the nation and Democrats do not see a path to retain the seat with out Manchin. Their greatest however unlikely hope is to select up a seat in both Texas or Florida, the place Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Rick Scott are operating for reelection. 

There are presently 48 Democrats, plus three independents who caucus with them, giving them a 51-49 majority. Here is the place the Senate map stands 9 months from Election Day and a take a look at the earliest fundraising numbers for the 12 months.

Montana

Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in search of reelection for a fourth time period in Montana, a state President Biden is not anticipated to win within the common election. In 2020, Trump received the state by a 16-point margin, 57-41%.

Nonetheless, Tester is fashionable within the state, and his approval rankings sit at about 61%, in accordance with a Morning Seek the advice of ballot performed final August by way of October.

Final quarter, Tester outraised his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy, in accordance with Federal Election Fee filings launched Wednesday, elevating $5.5 million. However he spent greater than he raised, roughly $7.2 million.

Of the $2.5 million Sheehy’s marketing campaign collected, about $450,000 got here from private loans from Sheehy. Going into 2024, Tester had about $11.2 million and Sheehy had almost $1.3 million.

Sheehy is the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a federal contractor, and a former Navy SEAL.

”Republicans have landed a really formidable challenger in opposition to Tester in Tim Sheehy, however there nonetheless is a possible major looming if Congressman Matt Rosendale will get in,” mentioned Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for Prepare dinner Political Report, a nonpartisan election tracker.

Rosendale misplaced to Tester in 2018. He has not dominated out a Senate bid, however Sen. Steve Daines, chair of the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee, who has endorsed Sheehy, is encouraging Rosendale to hunt reelection to Congress as an alternative. 

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending his seat in Ohio — a swing state turned purple. In 2020, Brown’s house state voted for Trump over Mr. Biden 53-45%. 

”Candidate high quality is basically Republicans’ largest obstacle probably, regardless of an extremely favorable map,” mentioned Taylor.

Brown outraised the three Republicans hoping to problem him in November. He introduced in over $6.6 million and spent almost half of what he raised, ending the 12 months with $14.6 million money readily available.

All of the Ohio GOP candidates spent greater than they raised within the final quarter. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose was the highest fundraiser amongst Republican major candidates within the state, bringing in almost $813,000 final quarter and spending $910,000. He completed with $772,000 money readily available and $250,000 in debt. State Sen. Matt Dolan, who ran in 2022 and misplaced to J.D. Vance within the major, introduced in about $358,000 however exhausted $2.3 million. He ended the 12 months with $4.8 million money readily available, probably the most out of all his GOP rivals, and $7 million in debt. Trump-backed businessman Bernie Moreno, who briefly ran in 2022, picked up $800,000 and spent $3.8 million. He closed out with $2 million money readily available and $3 million in debt.

Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema hasn’t mentioned if she is going to search re-election and the clock is ticking because the April 8 submitting deadline approaches. If she chooses to run once more, the Democrat-turned-independent will face challengers on each side of the aisle within the battleground state that voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, however traditionally votes for Republican candidates. 

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego is operating to Sinema’s left. He is a former Marine and has represented Arizona in Congress since 2015. On the correct is Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake, a former information anchor who ran for governor and misplaced in 2022.

Sheriff Mark Lamb who has served as sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona, since 2017, can be operating within the Republican major however lacks title recognition and the funding to compete.

Gallego outraised Lake, Sinema and Lamb, bringing in $3.3 million and ending the 12 months with $6.5 million within the financial institution. Lake raised $2.1 million and had $1.1 million left over. She additionally had $308,000 in debt.

Sinema spent greater than she raised final quarter. She introduced in $595,000 and burned by way of $797,000 however has $10.6 million money readily available.

Nevada

Sen. Jacky Rosen is in search of reelection to a second time period in a state Hilary Clinton received in 2016 and Mr. Biden received in 2020. Each Democratic nominees received Nevada by small margins.

This previous quarter, Rosen outraised the big discipline of Republicans, hoping to problem her within the common election, this previous quarter. She collected $3.2 million and ended the 12 months with $10.6 million money readily available.

Sam Brown, a veteran who suffered third-degree burns in Afghanistan, was the highest GOP fundraiser within the state. Brown ran unsuccessful campaigns for the Texas Home in 2014 and Senate in 2022 — dropping to Adam Laxalt. He has nationwide GOP help from Daine’s and Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell.

Final quarter, Brown introduced in $1.8 million, burned by way of $1.1 million and ended the 12 months with $1.7 million money readily available. Second in fundraising was Trump’s ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter with simply over $215,000 however spent barely greater than he raised.

Wisconsin

Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is in search of her third time period in Wisconsin which has voted solidly Democratic in presidential campaigns since 1988, earlier than breaking for Trump in 2016. In 2020, the state backed Mr. Biden, giving him a tiny margin of 0.6% over Trump. 

Baldwin would not have a severe challenger but however businessman Eric Hovde is anticipated to leap within the race and has the help of the Senate GOP marketing campaign arm. This is able to be Hovde’s second Senate bid after a slender loss in 2012 to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who was finally defeated by Baldwin.

For now, the one candidate within the Republican major is Rejani Raveendran, a 40-year-old school scholar who has by no means run for workplace within the state, in accordance with the AP. Within the fourth quarter, she raised $2,459.

Baldwin raised $3 million and ended the 12 months with $8 million.

Pennsylvania

Third-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will probably face off in opposition to Republican businessman Dave McCormick, the previous CEO of the Bridgewater Associates funding agency and a veteran who ran for Senate in 2022 and misplaced within the major in opposition to Mehmet Oz.

Pennsylvania handed Trump a win in 2016, however has in any other case voted for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992.

Within the fourth quarter of 2023, McCormick outraised Casey by about $2 million. Casey introduced in $3.6 million, whereas McCormick’s marketing campaign introduced in a complete of $5.5 million, together with $1 million McCormick contributed. Casey’s marketing campaign ended the 12 months with $9.4 million whereas McCormick had $4.2 million.

Michigan

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is operating to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin, a Michigan native and former CIA analyst, presently represents the state’s seventh Congressional District. 

Final quarter, Slotkin raised $2.8 million and was left with $6 million money readily available, outraising all her GOP opponents. She had $201,000 in debt.

There are 5 Republicans within the race, to this point. Former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s backed by Daines, introduced in $1 million. Rogers contemplated a presidential run however finally determined in opposition to it. He’s now endorsing Trump.

Businessman Sandy Pensler introduced in $1 million, nearly fully from private loans. Former Rep. Peter Meijer, who misplaced a Home major in 2022 to a Trump-backed challenger, introduced in simply over $508,000, with nearly $93,000 in loans. 

Michigan upended its Democratic voting document in 2016 when it handed Trump a win by lower than a proportion level. Michigan flipped again in 2020 when Mr. Biden received the state by roughly 3 factors. 

Texas and Florida

Going through a troublesome map, Democrats are hoping for lengthy shot victories in Texas and Florida. However Texas hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976 and though Florida has a extra nuanced document, it voted for Trump in each 2016 and 2020 and has more and more leaned Republican.

Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the primary South American immigrant elected to Congress, will face two-term senator Rick Scott in Florida. 

FEC filings revealed that Scott contributed the vast majority of funding towards his marketing campaign this previous quarter.  Whereas the submitting states that Scott raised $4.7 million solely about $1.6 million of that got here from people and political committees, with Scott contributing the remaining $3.1 million by way of private funds and loans. He additionally spent nearly as a lot as he raised final quarter.

Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, Sen. Ted Cruz’s probably challenger, outraised Cruz $4.8 million to $3.4 million. Cruz, who’s in search of a 3rd time period, burned by way of almost as a lot as he collected