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Assume the situation of this yr’s international local weather summit is contentious? Wait until you hear concerning the subsequent one.
When COP28 kicks off subsequent week within the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face stress to indicate its fossil gasoline pursuits received’t seize negotiations.
However no less than the convention has a bunch. Subsequent yr’s summit, COP29, is at the moment homeless.
That’s as a result of regional tensions have created a impasse. The convention is supposed to happen in Jap Europe, however Russia is stopping any European Union nation from internet hosting, whereas warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking one another, and nobody has been in a position to agree on a approach ahead.
The consequence: COP29 is in limbo, and international efforts to safe a habitable future danger being left leaderless. If nobody picks up the baton, the present host might stay in place till COP30 begins in 2025 — possible leaving the UAE in control of talks on main choices like a brand new finance purpose and getting governments to decide to post-2030 local weather targets.
Formally, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they do not consider that Bulgaria or some other EU nation might be neutral in working COP29,” mentioned Julian Popov, the surroundings minister for Bulgaria, which has supplied to host subsequent yr’s local weather summit.
However behind closed doorways, “their argument is that they’re being blocked by EU international locations about varied issues in relation to the battle towards Ukraine,” he advised POLITICO in an interview.
“They’re,” he mentioned, “principally retaliating.”
The dispute now dangers disrupting each COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the problem earlier than departing Dubai in mid-December.
“Russia has chosen to carry these negotiations nearly hostage,” mentioned Tom Evans, coverage advisor on local weather diplomacy and geopolitics at assume tank E3G.
Race towards time
The internet hosting dispute is inflaming geopolitical tensions heading into COP28, which takes place amid rising international discord associated to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas battle, and an evolving debt disaster looming over growing nations.
The COP local weather summits sometimes rotate among the many United Nations’ 5 regional teams, and subsequent yr is Jap Europe’s flip. The 23-country Jap Europe group has to resolve on the host nation by consensus.
Up to now, that wasn’t arduous: The COP convention would simply rubber-stamp the host chosen by the regional group. Now, nevertheless, the choice must be taken on the top of tough talks on a bunch of points starting from the way forward for fossil fuels to monetary assist for poorer international locations.
“It’s unlucky,” mentioned Popov, that the internet hosting dispute might “distract” from the precise negotiations in Dubai.
Then there’s the problem of preparation. COP areas are often chosen effectively prematurely — the UAE was introduced as host in 2021, and COP30 will happen in Brazil — to permit host cities to prepared themselves for the arrival of tens of hundreds of delegates.
The host nation often, however not at all times, additionally takes on the COP presidency, which performs an important position in main negotiations earlier than, throughout and after the summit.
“We nonetheless don’t know who will run the method subsequent yr,” Popov mentioned. “That is damaging the entire COP course of and can inevitably have a detrimental impression on the standard of negotiations.”
Among the many key points to be settled at COP29 is a brand new monetary goal for funding local weather motion in growing international locations from 2025 onward. Forward of COP30, international locations are supposed to submit a brand new spherical of local weather pledges, together with targets to scale back emissions by 2035.
“You actually need months of diplomacy prematurely to set these COPs up for fulfillment,” Evans mentioned.
Geopolitical stalemate
Moreover Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Armenia additionally mentioned final yr they might throw their hats within the ring for 2024.
Prague finally withdrew, proposing as a substitute to host the annual pre-COP summit forward of the primary occasion in Bulgaria. However this previous spring, Russia despatched an electronic mail to different Jap European representatives saying it might stop EU international locations from internet hosting, accusing them of blocking Russia-backed international locations.
The e-mail, obtained by Reuters, learn: ”It’s cheap to consider that EU international locations, pushed by politics from Brussels, wouldn’t have the capability to function trustworthy and efficient brokers of world local weather negotiations beneath the UNFCCC,” the U.N. Framework Conference on Local weather Change.
In the summertime, Azerbaijan joined the race to host COP29 — a number of months earlier than launching a large-scale offensive to retake the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh area, forcing tens of hundreds to flee to Armenia.
Azerbaijan and Armenia at the moment are opposing one another’s bids, mentioned Gayane Gabrielyan, Armenia’s deputy surroundings minister.
“Russia is obstructing any EU nation, and Armenia and Azerbaijan can’t discover a answer,” she advised POLITICO. “We now have greater than 100,000 refugees … On this state of affairs, we won’t be able to debate something with them.”
The overseas and surroundings ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan didn’t reply to requests for remark.
The Jap Europeans might additionally swap with one other regional group or a particular nation outdoors the area to host — like Spain stepped in for Chile in 2019 — however that might additionally require consensus, in addition to the formal withdrawal of all host candidates.
“The one possibility now’s going to Bonn,” Gabrielyan mentioned. “The motherland of the UNFCCC.”
Bonn-bound?
Bonn is the place the U.N. local weather physique is headquartered. The convention tips point out that the summit would default to the previous West German capital if no settlement is discovered among the many Jap European group.
However internet hosting a local weather convention “isn’t trivial,” Evans mentioned. “There is a price concerned, and there is a large logistical headache.”
A number of European diplomats, granted anonymity to debate delicate issues, advised POLITICO that Germany was lower than eager, one thing German officers would neither affirm nor deny.
Requested if Germany was ready to host, a overseas workplace spokesperson mentioned that discussions inside the Jap European group have been ongoing, “with the intention of COP28 taking a choice.”
Whereas Bonn might find yourself serving because the venue, the presidency would possible stay within the fingers of the UAE if the Jap Europeans can’t discover consensus, a spokesperson for the U.N. local weather physique mentioned.
But the UAE, which has confronted a barrage of criticism since naming nationwide oil firm CEO Sultan al-Jaber as convention president, seems reluctant to proceed in its position.
COP28 Director-Common Majid al-Suwaidi mentioned final month that his nation wouldn’t host once more. Requested to make clear whether or not that additionally meant not extending the presidency, a COP28 spokesperson declined to remark.
The predicament has prompted Bulgaria to counsel a novel answer to, as Popov put it, “save COP29” — splitting the mega-event throughout a number of nations in Jap Europe.
“Right here’s what we instructed: A distributed COP — have the pre-COP, the presidency and the COP held by three totally different international locations, and have some occasions organized in several Jap European international locations,” he mentioned.
However that, too, would want the backing of all regional group members. Gabrielyan mentioned Armenia was “prepared to debate” this feature, however that Azerbaijan had signaled opposition.
The uncertainty over who will host COP29 might include one optimistic side-effect, nevertheless: Diplomats is perhaps cautious of suspending tough choices to subsequent yr.
“It’s not unusual for COPs, once they attain among the trickiest points, to kick the can down the highway,” mentioned Evans. “I don’t really feel like that is an possibility this time.”