Relaunch the Polish-Ukrainian relationship – POLITICO

Marcin Zaborowski is the coverage listing of the Future Safety Programme at GLOBSEC.

Latest strains in Ukraine’s relations with its greatest Western neighbor, Poland, are hurting each nations — and benefiting Russia. So as to keep away from additional disagreements, nonetheless, a serious relaunch of the connection will probably be wanted. And right here, the election of a brand new Polish authorities might be a chance for a contemporary begin.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland grew to become a sanctuary for thousands and thousands of refugees. The nation was the primary port of name for over 10 million Ukrainians within the first months of the conflict, with 1.5 million of them deciding to remain — including to the greater than 1.5 million Ukrainians who already lived there.

On the time, most Poles have been engaged in serving to conflict refugees, who have been instantly granted standing akin to citizenship, with full entry to healthcare and training. Poland additionally supplied Ukraine with important weapons — together with howitzers, tanks and even plane — to the worth of greater than $3 billion.

However within the autumn of 2023, the connection began to bitter.

First, the 2 governments fell out over imports of Ukrainian grain, which Polish farmers complained have been flooding the market and undercutting home suppliers. Then, in September, the Polish authorities defied a European Fee name to finish a Warsaw-imposed embargo on grain imports. And in retaliation, the Ukrainian authorities has been threatening to sue Poland on the World Commerce Group.

The dispute led to the change of harsh feedback between either side, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggesting in a U.N. speech that Poland was successfully serving to Russia.

The escalation continued from there, with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki saying the nation would now not present Ukraine with weapons, specializing in rearming itself as an alternative. Furthermore, with Poland deep in election campaigning, some ministers argued assist and assist for Ukrainian refugees ought to finish, because it was being abused.

The excellent news is that anti-Ukrainian rhetoric didn’t assist the ruling Regulation and Justice occasion (PiS) win the elections. Furthermore, the anti-Ukrainian far-right Confederation occasion carried out effectively under expectations, securing solely 7 p.c of the vote.

The unhealthy information, nonetheless, is that anti-Ukrainian protests in Poland have now unfold to the transport sector, with truck drivers blocking border crossing factors and demanding the return of the system of restricted licenses for Ukrainian vehicles. The system had been suspended following the outbreak of the conflict.

And this border blockade is at the moment creating a serious difficulty for Ukraine’s worldwide commerce, as land routes are sometimes the nation’s solely viable technique of transport.

What Poland and Ukraine want is a reset that might enable their former strategic closeness to renew — however this can’t occur and not using a breakthrough on the highest political degree.

The current election in Poland thus creates a chance for a gap that have to be absolutely embraced by each the incoming Polish authorities and the Ukrainian president and his Cupboard.

Because the historical past of Franco-German and Polish-German relationships demonstrates, it’s certainly doable to determine a agency new footing in bilateral relations, so long as it’s strongly rooted in an internet of establishments and a mutual dedication to European integration.

For instance, the Elysée Treaty between West Germany and France, signed in 1963, created a robust bilateral framework. And the Polish-German Treaty of Good Neighbourship, signed in 1991, paved the best way for the European Union’s eastward growth.

Ukraine and Poland, for his or her half, have been shut buddies since Kyiv declared its independence, and the 2 nations signed a bilateral treaty in 1992. Nevertheless, that treaty is of a unique time and doesn’t seek advice from Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations at this time.

Resulting from causes of geography, in addition to the 2 nations’ historic and cultural ties, Poland is within the excellent place to behave as Ukraine’s foremost advocate within the EU and NATO. However for this to occur, the connection have to be helpful for each states, and there should be mechanisms in place that enable for the short decision of disagreements.

For instance, Poland’s banking sector might be inspired to take part within the privatization of Ukrainian banks. In the meantime, the battle throughout the agricultural sector might be become a chance, permitting for Polish firms to spend money on Ukraine and Ukrainian agricultural companies to realize entry to Poland’s trendy processing and advertising applied sciences.

Moreover, the reconstruction in Ukraine would profit from with the ability to lease Polish constructing equipment — a course of going through insurance coverage issues that might be resolved with the engagement of Polish state-owned insurers. And given Ukraine’s safety wants, there’s nice potential for the coproduction of protection tools and munitions, which might give an financial enhance to the border areas of each nations.

These are just some of the various extra concepts for cross-border cooperation which were floated, however they’re unlikely to take off with out the agency backing of each governments.

As the brand new Polish coalition assumes energy, the world will probably be watching to see what Warsaw’s international coverage priorities will probably be. New Prime Minister Donald Tusk might select Kyiv as one in all his first international capitals to go to. He and Zelenskyy might even journey collectively to Brussels to spice up Ukraine’s EU and NATO accession efforts, as the brand new authorities assumed energy on Monday. And the 2 leaders might set up a bilateral fee to develop a brand new, up to date treaty.

The significance of this rapprochement goes past each nations. Similar to there can be no European integration with out the Franco-German reconciliation, there have to be a robust bilateral Polish-Ukrainian relationship to safe a easy future for a rising EU.