NFL Week 18 picks: Banking on Belichick, Bears and Payments as Finest Bets

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BEST BETS

NEW YORK JETS (6-10) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-12)

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LINE: New England by 1.5

CHEWABLE: One in every of three video games this week during which all that’s at stake is draft positioning. Jets seemed like they have been getting a head begin on the low season with final season’s listless 17-point loss to the Browns. Trevor Siemian, who is healthier suited to play quarterback within the new UFL, will make his third straight begin for Gang Inexperienced. He’ll carry the Jets nowhere quick towards a Patriots defence that has given up much less whole yardage than all however 5 groups … Even the commonly harmful Breece Corridor could have hassle with New England’s second-ranked run defence. In the one sport he has performed towards the Patriots, Corridor carried the ball 12 occasions for 18 yards and caught one cross for 9 … The Patriots are coming off a hard-fought loss to the Payments and have received solely twice of their final 9, however they’ve been in each sport since Week 5 … Not liking Bailey Zappe’s probabilities towards the Jets’ fourth-ranked cross defence, particularly after he was picked off thrice in Buffalo, however the Patriots have received their final 15 video games towards the Jets and have gone 25 video games with out shedding to them in regulation time, and oh yeah, this might very effectively be Invoice Belichick’s final sport as New England’s coach. The defensive genius isn’t going out with a loss to the second-worst offence within the NFL.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND -1.5

SCORE (O/U 30.5): Patriots 17, Jets 7

CHICAGO BEARS (7-9) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8)

LINE: Inexperienced Bay by 3

CHEWABLE: How acquainted. The Packers win and so they’re in, simply because the case of their regular-season finale final 12 months on Wisconsin’s most well-known piece of Frozen Tundra. That evening their Aaron Rodgers-led offence managed to maneuver the ball simply 291 yards in a 20-16 loss to the Lions, who missed the playoffs however received eight of their final 10 to complete 9-8 and set the tone for his or her 2023 marketing campaign … The Bears are additionally gathering momentum for subsequent season with 5 wins of their final seven video games with three of their final 4 victories by double digits … Chicago has dropped its final 9 and 26 of its final 30 towards the Packers, in addition to the final seven at Lambeau. The Packers scored a 38-20 season-opening win at Soldier Subject and are coming off a powerful and thorough 23-point win in Minnesota to set the stage for this week … Packers working again Aaron Jones lastly has rediscovered his previous type. In his final two video games he has averaged six yards per carry whereas taking the ball 41 occasions for 247 yards. Now he goes up towards the NFL’s No. 1 defence, which has allowed a median of 84 speeding yards per sport … The Packers have the Twenty eighth-ranked rush defence, and the Bears have the second ranked floor sport … The Packers will miss suspended CB Jaire Alexander with regards to containing D.J. Moore, who’s contemporary off a nine-catch, 159-yard sport … Justin Fields is speaking about how good it will be for the Bears to finish on a optimistic at Lambeau, the place “their followers shall be loud as a result of there’s not a lot to do in Inexperienced Bay besides watch soccer.” Brash, eh? … I’m going with the higher workforce.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +3

SCORE (O/U 44): Bears 27, Packers 17

BUFFALO BILLS (10-6) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5)

LINE: Buffalo by 3

CHEWABLE: At stake is the AFC East title, however whereas the Dolphins have already got secured a playoff berth, the Payments can end wherever from the No. 2 seed to No. 6, No, 7 or out of the post-season image altogether. Together with having the motivational edge, the Payments have been in dash mode, profitable their final 4 video games, whereas their solely loss in six went to time beyond regulation … The Dolphins are actually limping to the end line. They’re coming off a 56-19 loss to the Ravens and their damage report is loaded with stars. Distinctive edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are on the IR, and amongst different key personnel who may miss this one are CB Xavien Howard, RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa additionally has a sore shoulder. If he performs he received’t be at 100% … The Payments weathered an early storm of main accidents however at the moment are in comparatively good condition. Josh Allen is somewhat banged up however there’s no approach he’ll miss this one, as a lot Miami would possibly want he would. Allen has owned the Fish with a 9-2 file that features a 65% completion charge, 31 TD passes and simply 5 picks … The Dolphins are 1-4 SU towards groups with profitable data this season … The Payments have received 12 of the final 14 conferences between the groups, together with a 48-20 pounding in Week 4, and I’d guess a considerable quantity on that pattern persevering with. Solely having to put three factors with Buffalo looks like an end-of-season reward from the bookmakers.

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TAKING: BUFFALO -3

SCORE (O/U 49.5): Payments 37, Dolphins 17

THE REST

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3)

LINE: Pittsburgh by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Whereas Baltimore has locked up the highest seed within the AFC, there are 5 situations during which the Steelers could make the playoffs and three of them contain a win over the Ravens plus some assist, whereas a fourth includes a tie and a few assist. The Ravens will relaxation some starters, together with Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr., however these groups don’t like one another and Baltimore would relish the chance to crush Pittsburgh’s post-season hopes … The Steelers have received six of the final seven conferences, however these days the video games have been shut. The final seven have been determined by a landing or much less whereas 4 of the final 5 have been determined by a area purpose or much less … The Steelers have received their final three video games in Baltimore, two by a area purpose and one by 4 factors … Pittsburgh has received its final two video games with an offence that has lastly come to life with 68 factors beneath Mason Rudolph, who has linked with George Pickens 11 occasions for 326 yards … Tyler Huntley is a high quality backup quarterback. However of his eight common season begins, he has seen the Steelers thrice and is 1-2 with a 59.4 completion share, one TD cross and three picks … Huntley has confirmed to be a harmful working menace versus Pittsburgh with 28 carries for 127 yards … The Steelers win, however respect the hate Ravens have for them.

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TAKING: BALTIMORE +3.5

SCORE (O/U 35.5): Steelers 23, Ravens 20

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7)

LINE: Houston by 1.5

CHEWABLE: The winner makes the playoffs and will even take the AFC South if Jacksonville loses to Tennessee, which is extraordinarily unlikely … The Colts have dominated the Texans through the years, profitable 33 of 44 conferences with one tie … Indy defeated Houston 31-20 in Week 2 regardless of C.J. Stroud finishing 30 of 47 cross makes an attempt for 384 yards and two TDs … Zack Moss led the Colts to that victory with 18 carries for 88 yards, however the Texans have enormously improved a run defence that was a sore spot. It’s now fourth-best within the league, which implies Jonathan Taylor’s effectiveness shall be minimized … Stroud returned from a two-game absence to steer Houston to a 26-3 victory over Tennessee. Count on him to be higher towards the Seventeenth-ranked cross defence within the Texans’ first prime time sport.

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TAKING: HOUSTON -1.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Texans 24, Colts 21

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8)

LINE: New Orleans by 3

CHEWABLE: The winternal takes the NFC South if the Bucs lose to the Panthers, which is extraordinarily unlikely … The Saints can nonetheless slip right into a wild card spot with a win and a Tampa Bay victory … The Saints have received 9 of their final 12 conferences with Atlanta … The Falcons defeated New Orleans 24-15 in Week 12 with 228 speeding yards … The Falcons have the unenviable activity of enjoying their second straight highway sport after getting crunched by the Bears … The Saints have received three of their final 4 video games and are coming off a 10-point victory in Tampa … The Saints have received their final two dwelling video games by a mixed rating of 52-12, however are solely 2-5 ATS at Caesars Superdome … The Falcons have misplaced three of their final 4, together with a 9-7 verdict towards the Panthers … New Orleans’ Derek Carr is the very best QB on both workforce, and it’s not shut.

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TAKING: NEW ORLEANS -3

SCORE (O/U 42): Saints 21, Falcons 17

CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-8) 

LINE: Cincinnati by 7

CHEWABLE: Some will say this can be a tough sport to choose as a result of the end result means nothing to both group. Probably not. The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed and can relaxation key gamers — even previous man Joe Flacco will get the time without work, and he didn’t actually have a job halfway by November — however the Bengals will need to finish a really disappointing season on a optimistic word. Not apprehensive in regards to the massive unfold as a result of I like Jake Browning towards Browns reserves far more than Cleveland’s Jeff Driskel, who’s 1-9 as a starter and principally shall be throwing and handing the ball off to backups. 

TAKING: CINCINNATI -7

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SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bengals 24, Browns 14

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7) at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-11)

LINE: Jacksonville by 5

CHEWABLE: Mike Vrabel is 25-14 ATS as an underdog of 3-plus factors and he’s going to make it tough for the Jaguars, who simply want a victory to win their second straight division title. Jacksonville might once more be with out QB Trevor Lawrence, whose ailing shoulder has improved to the purpose the place he was upgraded to restricted at Thursday’s apply. Final week, C.J. Beathard was solidly common because the Jags defence pitched a 26-0 shutout towards the Panthers … The Titans are higher at dwelling than their 4-3 SU file signifies. They received their first 4 at Nissan Stadium earlier than shedding their final three, all by a area purpose … The Jaguars beat the Titans 34-14 in Week 11 … The Titans are 3-1-1 as a house canine whereas the Jags are 3-1-0 as an away favorite … Titans QB Will Levis (foot) returned to apply Thursday, however the Titans shall be tremendous if they’ve to make use of Ryan Tannehill, who has a 7-3 profession file versus the Jags with a 17/3 TD cross/choose ratio. Jacksonville’s cross ‘D’ is a susceptible twenty seventh.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +5

SCORE (O/U 40): Jaguars 20, Titans 17

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) at DETROIT LIONS (11-5)

LINE: Detroit by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Vikings nonetheless have an out of doors shot at a playoff spot, nevertheless it’s going to take a win and assist to get them there after a 23-point choke job final week at dwelling towards the Packers … The Lions are sitting within the No. 3 seed and might solely transfer up, however even attending to No. 2 is an excessive lengthy shot, in order that they possible will relaxation some starters — except head coach Dan Campbell continues to be pissed off in regards to the refereeing in his workforce’s loss to Dallas final week and needs to take it out on the Vikings … Detroit has received three of the final 4 conferences, together with in Week 16, a 30-24 victory during which the Lions had a 143-17 edge in speeding yards … Detroit is 11-5 ATS, which is tied for the league greatest mark. The Vikings are 2-0-2 as a highway canine … I just like the Vikings to win this one — if they will get the 67-year previous Warren Moon to be their quarterback for a day, as he nonetheless is likely to be higher than what they’ve … The Lions are coming into the playoffs as a legit contender for the primary time in a very long time and so they’ll need to go in on a excessive.

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TAKING: DETROIT -3.5

SCORE (O/U 45.5): Lions 27, Vikings 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-14)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 4.5

CHEWABLE: Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS as a customer and can earn its third division title in a row with a victory over a Panthers workforce that was shut out by the Twentieth-ranked defence final week. Carolina has scored greater than 18 factors simply as soon as in its previous 10 video games … The Bucs have received eight of the final 10 conferences, together with a 21-18 victory during which Baker Mayfield and Bryce (The Bust) Younger mixed for simply 343 passing yards … Solely two groups have allowed fewer passing yards than the Panthers, however in Week 13 they couldn’t cease Mike Evans, who had seven catches for 162 yards … Evans and RB Rachaad White, who’s seventh in yards from scrimmage (915 speeding, 531 receiving) will ship the Panthers into the winter with simply the second two-win season of their historical past. And also you marvel why workforce proprietor David Tepper is throwing drinks at individuals.

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TAKING: TAMPA BAY -4.5

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bucs 23, Panthers 10

DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-12)

LINE: Dallas by 13

CHEWABLE: Due to the plummeting Eagles, the Cowboys can take the NFC East with a victory towards a workforce that’s tied with two others for the second-worst file within the league … The Commanders have did not cowl in 4 of 5 video games during which they have been a 7-plus level canine, together with a 45-10 loss in Dallas in Week 12. Do they present up right here, for what must be Ron Rivera’s final gams as their coach? Does it matter? … The Cowboys are a weak 3-5 on the highway, each SU and ATS, however they’re 3-1-0 as away favourites so they often don’t have hassle when visiting an inside squad … The Commanders have been winners in two of the final thrice Dallas has visited … Dallas QB Dak Prescott towards the Commanders’ league-worst cross defence, and the Cowboys cross rush towards Washington’s shaky offensive line, are two promoting options for the backers of the guests … At all times concern the backdoor cowl with massive spreads, particularly in divisional video games, however the Commanders are 0-6-1 ATS at dwelling and have misplaced their final seven video games by a median rating of 34-18.

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TAKING: DALLAS -13

SCORE (O/U 46): Cowboys 34, Commanders 18

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-7) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-4)

LINE: San Francisco by 4

CHEWABLE: Whereas the Niners are locked in as high seed and can relaxation gamers, the Rams’ playoff spot is undetermined. In the event that they win, they play subsequent week towards the No. 3 seed, possible Detroit. In the event that they lose and Inexperienced Bay wins, they play subsequent week towards the No. 2 seed, possible Dallas. All groups ought to need to keep away from enjoying in Dallas, proper? So why are the Rams additionally resting starters, together with QB Matt Stafford, who would most likely love to return again with a possibility to hang-out the Lions, his former workforce? … Making his first look as a Ram shall be Carson Wentz, who hasn’t performed since Jan. 1, 2023, when he led the Commanders to a 24-10 loss towards Cleveland by throwing for simply 143 yards and getting picked off thrice … Beneath centre for the Niners shall be Sam Darnold, who shall be making his first begin since Jan. 8, 2023, when he accomplished 5 of 15 cross makes an attempt whereas throwing two picks as his Panthers defeated the Saints 10-7 … Both workforce may win, after all, however how can one really feel snug laying 4 factors, even whether it is with the Kyle Shanahan-coached 49ers?

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +4

SCORE (O/U 41): Rams 21, Niners 20

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (5-11)

LINE: Philadelphia by 5

CHEWABLE: The Eagles lock in as No. 5 seed if/when the Cowboys beat the Commanders … Philly additionally has misplaced 4 of its final 5, with the one win a 33-25 victory in New York towards the Giants two weeks in the past … The Eagles have received solely six video games by greater than 5 factors and 5 of them got here of their 7-1 begin … The Giants are 4-2-1 ATS as a house canine … The Eagles have received the final 5 conferences and 27 of the final 32 … Tyrod Taylor will once more begin at QB for New York. Final week towards the Rams, he threw for 319 yards and fell simply in need of main the workforce to an upset victory. Over his profession, Taylor is 0-3 towards the Eagles … I hold anticipating Philly to repair itself, and that might occur at MetLife Stadium, however after their loss final week at dwelling to the Cardinals and getting outscored 29-10 within the second half, there’s simply no approach you may lay factors towards this division rival.

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TAKING: N.Y. GIANTS +5

SCORE (O/U 42): Eagles 30, Giants 27

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-12)

LINE: Seattle by 2.5

CHEWABLE: The Seahawks could make the playoffs with a win if the Bears beat the Packers … The Cardinals are coming off a 35-31 victory over the Eagles during which they scored 29 second-half factors … Seattle’s rush defence has turned to mush, which makes a props guess on the over with James Conner’s speeding yards (70.5) a sensible transfer … Arizona has allowed 27 or extra factors in three video games in a row … Seattle is 5-2-1 ATS as guests … The Seahawks possible shall be with out RB Kenneth Walker, and the downgrade to Zach Charbonnet is important … Certain, the Cardinals may finish Seattle’s season, however 72-year-old Pete Carroll finds a option to win what might be his final regular-season sport.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +2.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Seahawks 30, Cardinals 28

DENVER BRONCOS (8-8) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-9)

LINE: Las Vegas by 2.5

CHEWABLE: At stake is second place within the AFC West which, together with $3.99, will get you a bag of Lay’s Bar-B-Q chips. Whereas the season ends for each groups Sunday, the Raiders have performed effectively for coach Antonio Pierce, like they need the workforce to take away the interim tag and provides him the job full time or one thing. Since he took over from Josh McDaniels they’re 4-4, and their final two losses have been by three factors … The Raiders opened the schedule with a 17-16 win in Denver, and Broncos head coach Sean Payton is 14-4 ATS in same-season revenge video games, however I’m nonetheless not backing Denver QB Jarrett Stidham as he makes his fourth profession begin searching for his second win, even whether it is with Aidan O’Connell because the opposing QB.

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS -2.5

SCORE (O/U 38): Raiders 17, Broncos 14

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-11)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Chiefs are locked in because the No. 3 seed, however does it matter if QB Patrick Mahomes performs? The woeful Chargers have dropped 4 in a row and 7 of their final eight, and they’re coming off 16-9 loss to Stidham. Until I missed a launch stating Andy Reid is beginning at QB and Steve Spagnuolo at rush finish, I don’t perceive why the Chiefs are usually not simply canines however canines by greater than a area purpose … The Chiefs have received the final 4 conferences and 16 of the final 19 … After such a topsy-turvy common season, the Chiefs will finish on a optimistic, even when they play backups many of the sport.

TAKING: KANSAS CITY +3.5

SCORE (O/U 35): Chiefs 23, Chargers 17

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