NFL Week 11 Picks: Steelers, Jets and Chiefs are finest bets

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BEST BETS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-3)

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LINE: Cleveland by 1

CHEWABLE: The Browns should be down a quart or two of emotional fluids after their come-from-behind win over Baltimore final week, however that’s additionally the least of their issues. With Deshaun Watson executed for the season they’re turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who threw for 121 yards and three interceptions in his solely different begin. Browns will even be with out their prime two tackles if Dawand Jones joins Jedrick Wills Jr. on the sidelines. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are drooling … The quarterback information out of Cleveland precipitated a three-point dip within the line, as earlier than Wednesday you may get the Steelers at +4 … Are the Steelers actually 6-3 regardless of being out-gained in web yards and on common yards per play in all however two of their video games? How do they do it? By saving their finest for final is a method. Prior to now 4 video games Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 38-3 within the fourth quarter … Aside from one A.J. Dillon 40-yard burst, the Steelers held the Packers to 86 dashing yards on 23 carries final week. In the meantime, their very own line was opening holes for Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, who led Pittsburgh’s floor assault of 205 yards on 36 carries … The Steelers have 39 wins and a tie to point out for his or her final 48 conferences with the Browns. That turns into 40-of-49 on Sunday, as there’s no means this rookie QB beats Mike Tomlin.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +1

SCORE (O/U 33): Steelers 20, Browns 14

NEW YORK JETS (4-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (5-5)

LINE: Buffalo by 7

CHEWABLE: When Jets coach Robert Saleh mentioned earlier within the season that his defence has “embarrassed” all of the quarterbacks it has confronted this 12 months, first on that record was Josh Allen, who threw for simply 236 yards, with one TD go and three picks within the season opening 22-16 OT loss to Gang Inexperienced. It was par for the course for Allen, who in 10 profession video games towards the Jets is 6-4 with 9 TD passes and 10 picks. … With three losses of their final 4 video games, together with a 24-22 flop at residence on Monday, the Payments are formally at risk of lacking the playoffs … James Prepare dinner is coming off his second triple-digit dashing recreation of the season on the heels of his 12-carry, 109-yard efficiency towards the Broncos, and the Payments are certain handy him many alternatives towards the Thirty first-ranked run defence which has allowed a median of 138.4 floor yards per recreation … The Payments additionally battle towards the run, dropping right down to nineteenth since shedding LB Matt Milano, so Breece Corridor also needs to have a day … Together with proudly owning a 10-game lead within the all-time collection, the Payments have gained their final three residence video games towards the Jets by a median of 11.2 factors a recreation … Whereas Buffalo’s probabilities of making the playoffs are slipping away, the Jets haven’t scored a landing since Corridor went 50 after taking a Zach Wilson dump go three video games in the past … The Jets are 4-2 ATS as a canine  and desperately wish to keep in playoff spot competition for when Aaron Rodgers plans to make a miraculous mid-December return. However this one feels just like the Payments’ season is on the road, and so they should suppose so too, which might clarify why they took the drastic step of firing OC Ken Dorsey this week.

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TAKING: N.Y. JETS +7

SCORE (O/U 40): Payments 21, Jets 20

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-2)

LINE: Kansas Metropolis by 2.5 

CHEWABLE: Travis Kelce goes from Germany to Argentina to the highlight on Monday Night time Soccer, as he returns from the bye because the central determine in a rematch of final season’s Tremendous Bowl. In his final two video games Kelce has been very un-Kelce-like, catching three passes for 14 yards within the 21-14 victory over Miami in Frankfurt and a decent-for-most 6-for-58 within the 24-9 loss to the Broncos every week earlier than that. Anticipate Taylor Swift’s massive boy to shine on this spot. The Eagles have the very best run defence within the NFL (which ought to negate Isiah Pacheco) however are twenty eighth towards the go and are notably weak towards tight ends … Whereas each offences are robust, the Chiefs defence provides them the sting, rating fourth in yards allowed and fifth towards the go. So in choosing Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts it’s about extra than simply the skills of the 2 celebrity QBs. It additionally has to do with what every is dealing with this week … The Chiefs have gained the final 4 conferences, together with a 38-35 victory in final February’s Tremendous Bowl, and are 4-1 ATS as a favorite of six factors or much less. Whereas each groups are coming off a bye, Ok.C.’s ace up the sleeve is former Eagles coach Andy Reid, who’s 18-10 ATS with an additional week to arrange throughout the season.

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TAKING: KANSAS CITY -2.5

SCORE (O/U 45.5): Chiefs 26, Eagles 20

THE REST ….

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-8) at HOUSTON TEXANS  (5-4)

LINE: Houston by 5

CHEWABLE: For his first recreation in 11 months all Kyler Murray did was lead the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over the Falcons, finishing 19 of 32 passes for 249 yards, however with no TD passes and one interception. However its Arizona’s leaky defence that’s a priority right here. Playing cards at the moment are dealing with C.J. Stroud, not Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder, and within the rookie’s previous two video games he has thrown for 826 yards, six touchdowns and eventually the second interception of the season. … The return of James Conner gave the Playing cards the working recreation they missed whereas he was injured, however he’ll be in powerful towards the Texans’ eighth-ranked run defence … Can’t see Stroud taking a step again towards a nasty defence, however the Texans are a younger crew underneath a rookie coach and will fall into the lure of considering the Playing cards are solely a bit higher with Murray and Conners.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +5

SCORE (O/U 49): Texans 27, Cardinals 24

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-6)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 3

CHEWABLE: The Packers have gained one among their final six, and that was a 20-3 choice over a Rams crew quarterbacked by Brett Rypien, so it shouldn’t even depend. Aaron Jones seemed to be turning the nook in his restoration from a difficult hamstring till he had simply 35 yards on 13 carries in a loss to the Steelers final week, so the Packers should assault via the air towards a Chargers crew that has the Thirty second-ranked go defence. That may solely work if Jordan Love has time to eliminate the ball earlier than Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa get to him, and provided that Love stops throwing so many interceptions. There have been 10 in his final seven video games … The Packers are seventh towards the go however it seems their finest nook, Jaire Alexander, will miss one other recreation with a shoulder damage … The Chargers have extra expertise throughout the board and so they scored 38 of their loss to the Lions final week. Justin Herbert ought to gentle it up towards a QB who can’t sustain right here.

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TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS -3

SCORE (O/U 44): Chargers 28, Packers 17

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-8) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-6)

LINE: Washington by 9

CHEWABLE: The Giants have one victory within the final two months, a 14-7 overcome Washington led by QB Tyrod Taylor. Now they’re using Tommy DeVito, who additionally had a pair of (rubbish time) TD passes in his first NFL begin final week, however accomplished simply 14 of 27 passes for 86 yards within the 49-17 whipping they took from the Cowboys … Regardless of buying and selling away massive chunks of their defence earlier than the deadline, the Commanders proceed to play onerous for coach Ron Rivera, shedding 29-26 in Seattle final week after scoring a three-point win towards New England the week earlier than. They’ve been thumped twice this season, however their different 4 losses have come by a mixed 23 factors. When you suppose I’m lining this as much as say I’m backing the Commanders, you’re flawed. I’m on DeVito, who for the primary time in three video games can have time to seek out his receivers towards Washington, which now not has a go rusher of observe. The Commanders even have a comfortable secondary and battle to comprise cellular quarterbacks, and so they shouldn’t be favoured by this a lot towards anyone.

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TAKING: N.Y. GIANTS +9

SCORE (O/U 37): Commanders 23, Giants 21

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-6) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-3)

LINE: Jacksonville by 7

CHEWABLE: The Jaguars went from being the most well liked crew within the NFL to at least one left battered and bloodied in a 34-3 beating by the Niners. It stands to motive that the Titans pays for his or her ache. Coming off his worst recreation of the season, Trevor Lawrence is bound to shred the Titans’ anemic secondary that Baker Mayfield has his means final Sunday. Will Levis accomplished simply 48.7% of his 39 passes whereas falling wanting the 200-yard mark for the primary time in his three-start profession final week and now faces a Jags go defence ranked thirtieth. They will’t anticipate a lot from Derrick Henry towards a run defence that ranks fifth.

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TAKING: JACKSONVILLE -7

SCORE (0/U 40): Jaguars 30, Titans 17

CHICAGO BEARS (3-7) at DETROIT LIONS (7-2)

LINE: Detroit by 7.5

CHEWABLE: I’ve been a Bears fan for greater than 50 years, however I care extra about getting my picks proper than I do about them profitable in a season like this. Every loss means the higher their draft place can be, but additionally may cause them to Justin Fields, which I believe can be a mistake. I believe beginning together with his return from a dislocated thumb, Fields goes to spend the following seven video games exhibiting everybody he desires to remain in Chicago … I additionally suppose the Lions are going to wind up as the highest seed within the NFC, however I’m not going to taking them as a double-digit favorite on this divisional matchup towards a Bears crew that basically isn’t as unhealthy because the numbers would point out. Chicago’s low defensive rating (26) is as a result of key members of the secondary had been injured. Their run defence is second-best within the league, and with OG Nate Davis and presumably RB Khalil Herbert additionally anticipated to return this week, their offence would be the healthiest it has been all season … In three profession video games towards the Lions, Fields has one win and extra dashing yards (288) than towards every other crew, with an 11.08 yards per carry. Additionally, solely the Chargers, Texans, Seahawks and Colts have allowed extra fantasy factors to quarterbacks than Lions.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +7.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Lions 33, Bears 30

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-3)

LINE: Miami by 13.5

CHEWABLE: Tempted to seize a cigar and bounce on the Raiders bandwagon being pushed by Compton’s very personal Antonio Pierce, who’s 2-0 since taking on from Josh McDaniels, a person the gamers clearly stop on. These two victories had been towards the Giants at their low level and the Jets, who haven’t scored a landing in 11 quarters. Coming off a bye week however nonetheless upset of their loss to Chiefs in Germany, the Dolphins would possibly enter the top zone twice earlier than the primary 11 minutes. The Raiders go defence, which is ranked a shocking eighth, will drop down the charts after Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will get via with it, whereas Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane, who’s presumably returning damage, will blow via the Twenty ninth-ranked run defence. The Raiders have averaged 33 carries and 149 dashing yards within the two video games underneath Pierce, and the Dolphins run defence is averaging 106.2 dashing yards allowed per recreation, however Miami is 3-0 ATS at residence and Vegas has been outscored 68-22 in its 1 p.m. ET kickoff occasions this season. I’ve zero religion that Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell will even come near maintaining with the Dolphins No. 1 ranked attacked, and I had the Fish till the road jumped a few factors. Now I’m calling my shot: Jimmy Garoppolo main the Raiders to a back-door cowl.

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS +13.5

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Dolphins 34, Raiders 24

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-8)

LINE: Dallas by 10.5

CHEWABLE: As is the case with the Lions, the Cowboys can be lining up 4 days from now for a Thanksgiving Day recreation, and regardless that each can be dealing with an inferior crew on Thursday, there must be vital distraction with household and associates coming to city for the vacation. It’s just for each to look previous Sunday’s video games, if simply sufficient that they fail to cowl an enormous unfold … Cowboys have a High 3 defence that additional provides to the distress of Bryce Younger, whereas the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb pairing has mixed for 500 yards the final three video games. The Panthers are good towards aerial assaults, rating sixth versus the go, and so they’ll be even stronger this week with the return of defensive finish Brian Burns … Tony Pollard would possibly burn the Panthers’ Twenty sixth-ranked run defence, however alongside together with his failure to attain since Week 1, he hasn’t rushed for greater than 53 yards since Week 3.

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TAKING: DALLAS -10.5

SCORE (O/U 42): Cowboys 27, Panthers 13

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-5) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-3)

LINE: San Francisco by 11.5

CHEWABLE: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs did a quantity on the Titans final week in a 20-6 victory, however as you might know, the Niners aren’t the Titans. The Niners stopped the NFL’s hottest crew of their 34-3 victory in Jacksonville final week. That victory ended a stunning three-game shedding streak whereas additionally reminding the world what they will do when wholesome, and Chase Younger has been added to their already beefy defence. With a bye week to clear his head after a concussion, Brock Purdy threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns and now faces a go defence that ranks Thirty first, with a median of 266.9 yards towards per recreation … 5 of the Niners’ six victories have been by not less than 18 factors … Tampa Bay has the second-worst run offence within the league, so don’t anticipate Rachaad White to maintain the Niners defence off stability.

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TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -11.5

SCORE (O/U 41.5): Niners 30, Buccaneers 14

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-3) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-6)

LINE: Seattle by 1

CHEWABLE: You’d suppose that regardless that he’s not the identical Comeback Participant of the Yr he was final 12 months, Geno Smith ought to have the ability to outgun a Matthew Stafford anticipated to play via a mending thumb damage on his throwing hand. However the Seahawks haven’t been very spectacular the final two weeks – a 37-3 loss to the Ravens and a 29-26 victory over the Commanders that noticed Sam Howell throw for 312 yards and three TDs – and the Rams, who’ve misplaced three in row, have to get rotated now if they need a shot at making the playoffs. The Rams gained the season opener 30-13 in Seattle, however the Seahawks didn’t have excellent first-round CB Devon Witherspoon dressed … Seattle does have bother defending the slot, which suggests Cooper Kupp ought to get untracked after three video games of 48 yards or much less … Rams RBs also needs to have success towards the Twenty fourth-ranked rush defence.

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +1

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Rams 27, Seahawks 24

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-4) at DENVER BRONCOS (4-5)

LINE: Denver by 2.5 

CHEWABLE: The Vikings are an incredible story with 5 wins in a row, together with the final two with a quarterback who may not but have the ability to title all his teammates, however now Joshua Dobbs, aka “The Passtronaut” has landed on the damage report with an ankle problem. He’s practising absolutely, but when the issue worsens they may very well be in serious trouble, as Jaren Corridor is in concussion protocol and fourth (or fifth) stringer Nick Mullens (again) is simply getting back from IR. Elevated from the observe roster is Sean Mannion, who has appeared in only one recreation since 2019 and it was two years in the past. In fact, the Vikings additionally thrive on adversity. You say Justin Jefferson may very well be returning this week from the IR? I say the Vikings are 5-0 with out Jefferson, who arguably is the very best receiver in soccer. The Vikings additionally improved tremendously on the defensive aspect of the ball underneath DC Brian Flores, who has them High 10 versus the run … The Broncos are additionally turning issues round for Sean Payton with three wins in a row. Russell Wilson has thrown 12 TD passes and simply two interceptions in his final six video games whereas the Broncos have averaged 134.8 yards dashing over their previous 5 … Denver’s defence continues to be ranked Thirty second, however it has improved considerably since giving up 70 to Miami. Of their 24-22 highway win over the Payments on Monday, Stefon Diggs was held to only three catches for 34 yards … A month in the past, you’ll have checked out this matchup and referred to as it one other Sunday evening dud. Not now.

TAKING: DENVER -2.5

SCORE (O/U 42.5): Broncos 24, Vikings 21

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