BRUSSELS — Ceci n’est pas une campagne électorale.
As Belgium gears up for its six-month stint on the helm of the Council of the European Union from January 1, the nation’s political consideration is already mounted on one other date: June 9, Belgium’s subsequent election.
Belgian diplomats and advisers will clarify to their bosses that the EU presidency — full with its photo-ops, purple carpets and casual summits — might be a really great tool for his or her heated nationwide electoral campaigns.
“Different presidencies earlier than us have confronted related circumstances, reminiscent of France in 2022 — or extra lately, Spain. This has not prevented them from honoring their presidencies,” Belgian International and EU Minister Hadja Lahbib advised POLITICO.
Nevertheless, in contrast to in Belgium’s election, main events on these different nationwide ballots didn’t query the very existence of the nation.
Belgium’s far-right Vlaams Belang celebration — which desires to show the nation’s northern area of Flanders into a completely unbiased, breakaway state — has lengthy been forward, in line with POLITICO’s Ballot of Polls.
The specter of a far-right surge, particularly after a far-right win within the neighboring Netherlands, is placing additional political strain on the nation of 11.6 million inhabitants with its intricate governmental construction.
Belgium’s election received’t forestall the nation, identified for its compromise-making, from taking part in its position main Europe. However conversations with dozens of Belgian diplomats, aides and politicians have painted an image of the election because the elephant within the room of the presidency.
“Final time, we had elections earlier than the presidency, and that was good as a result of it gave a whole lot of autonomy to diplomats to play the position of trustworthy dealer,” mentioned Ferdi De Ville, a professor of European political economic system on the College of Ghent. He’s referring to the 2010 Belgian presidency of the Council, which occurred when the nation was with out a authorities for greater than 500 days.
“Now, the presidency will coincide with the election, so the danger for the marketing campaign contaminating the presidency is far greater.”
Handy worldwide stage
For Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, time within the scorching seat of the EU is a handy alternative to extend his standing as a European statesman.
De Croo, who’s at present main a coalition of seven events spanning 4 political households and two languages, has little likelihood of staying on as prime minister after the elections. His celebration, which was already struggling, has been in turmoil within the wake of an October terrorist assault in Brussels.
Though the prime minister has denied he’s , De Croo’s identify continues to be linked to EU high jobs. Brokering offers and, equally essential, having a seat on the desk when the good carving-up of high jobs is occurring may enhance his probabilities — or on the very least enhance his nationwide profile.
De Croo, who belongs to the centrist, free market-oriented Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats celebration, is about to be a key participant throughout the presidency. However International Minister Lahbib’s position can even play entrance and heart — she is minister for the EU in addition to for commerce, which entails chairing a variety of Council conferences.
It’s a heavy portfolio for the previous tv anchor, who solely began the job in the summertime of 2022. Critics have slammed her as politically inexperienced, particularly when she appeared on the brink of resignation over the summer season for handing out visas to Iranian officers.
Most diplomats, nonetheless, confused that she has now grown into the job. “She could be very cautious,” mentioned one diplomat, granted anonymity to talk freely. “She’s very diplomatic, she’ll keep on with her traces and received’t go bluffing.”
Upcoming complications
In the meantime, the work awaiting the Belgians is Herculean.
The opposite 26 EU nations will rely on Belgium to ship on key information, starting from a politically delicate evaluation of the EU finances together with assist for Ukraine, to finalizing the brand new asylum and migration pact. That topic is loaded for Belgium, as its personal migration coverage has led to a scarcity of shelter for asylum seekers who’re single and male.
It’s additionally on the Belgians to evaluation the EU’s future enlargement. They must work out which intra-European reforms are essential to verify the EU is able to take up new members reminiscent of Ukraine and Moldova.
Reaching compromises between EU nations and the European Parliament shall be a race in opposition to the clock, diplomats acknowledged. Due to this fact, Belgium is making ready a fragile political train to see which information are nonetheless sensible — and which must be dropped altogether. Making that train additional difficult is that the nation, divided into French-speaking and Dutch-speaking components, has a power-sharing association whereby some Council conferences shall be chaired by regional fairly than federal ministers.
On high of wrapping up key legislative information, Belgium can even need to regulate the nation that may maintain the presidency within the second half of 2024 — Hungary, led by Euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“There’s a sure strain on the Belgians to lock in key information and to organize the course for after the European election,” mentioned Hendrik Vos, a professor of European research the College of Ghent. That European election, by the way, shall be held similtaneously the Belgian election.
“Hungary shall be in cost simply when the brand new European Fee will get began and can thus play a much less essential position.”
Hanne Cokelaere contributed reporting