Whereas sure Russian distinguished figures like Vladimir Putin himself are beneath investigation by the Worldwide Prison Courtroom (ICC) for the unlawful deportation of kids from the occupied territories of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities proceed to carry Ukrainian kids [abducted by Russian troops] from the occupied territories into Belarus, and have even organised a PR-campaign round what they’re doing.
On the identical time, everybody has seen simply how livid Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenka turns into at a lot as a point out of the risk from the ICC.
Gazeta.by has requested political scientist Anatoly Kotov to touch upon the state of affairs:
“The logic of the regime is after all not suicidal, however it is rather a lot of the second”, Kotov mentioned: “no arrest warrant has been issued on this newest event, and the one response to earlier arrivals of Ukrainian kids in Belarus has been expressions of concern. So bringing them into the nation is ok.”
“There may be one other vital facet to those visits for ‘convalescence’, he provides: “the challenge isn’t with out monetary acquire. Giant quantities have been allotted to it from the price range of the so-called Union State [of Russia and Belarus]. So, the state of affairs we’ve got for the time being is: we haven’t been punished, and we’ve even made some cash out of it – it’s win-win.”
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Gazeta.by: Is there actually nobody who would possibly ask what would occur if the ICC points an arrest warrant towards Lukashenka?
Anatolii Kotov: The issue is that, beginning in 2020, all these able to evaluation have been faraway from workplace. The occasions which have taken place and nonetheless proceed in Belarus could be defined by precisely the identical logic of the fast second: we’re bringing some cash in and we’re not being punished, so we could as nicely proceed in the identical spirit.
So far as the arrest warrant for the deportation of kids is anxious, the regime appears to take the worldwide prosecution critically; nevertheless, they’re satisfied that there are inadequate grounds for a warrant linked to the deportation. The truth that one could also be issued towards the Belarusian chief they regard as a matter of political expediency.
In different phrases, there have been grounds for issuing a warrant even earlier than April 2023, when the primary info and the primary proof of Belarusian involvement got here to gentle. Kids had been being delivered to Belarus earlier than that.
Nonetheless, regardless of all of the proof no warrant has but been issued for the arrest of Lukashenka. This should imply that it’s not solely a matter of whether or not there are enough grounds or not; it could be a query of getting the political will to do it.
This is the reason I contemplate that, throughout the system that they themselves have created, the Belarusian regime behaves very rationally
The Belarusian facet could probably clarify the state of affairs to itself like this: we’re serving to Russia, however we aren’t at conflict and due to this fact haven’t crossed any pink traces that would in any other case result in the adoption of a political determination of that sort.
The one one who has suffered on this story – comparatively talking – is the top of the Belarusian Purple Cross, Dmitrii Shevtsov, who Ukrainian International Minister Dmytro Kuleba has requested the Worldwide Prison Courtroom to subject an arrest warrant for. Up to now, Shevtsov hasn’t ‘suffered’ due to the youngsters a lot as for his show of the “Z” image [carried by the Russian occupation army in Ukraine].
This is the reason I contemplate that, throughout the system that they themselves have created, the Belarusian regime behaves very rationally. It’s one other matter completely that they may someday must reply for what they’ve completed.
The issue is that they’ve already been residing on a day-by-day foundation ever because the occasions of 2020, and in sure methods because the finish of the Nineties.
Apart from the current trial of Yuri Goravskii [a member of the Belarusian special forces hit squad responsible for the murder of two prominent opposition politicians and a businessman in 1999. The trial was held in Switzerland under the principle of universal jurisdiction] no one for the time being is having to reply for what has been completed. Nobody has been punished, imprisoned or detained overseas. True, some limitations have been positioned on doing enterprise, however within the present context this quantities to not more than a mosquito chunk.
Nonetheless, the gathering of paperwork and different gadgets that show the crimes of Lukashenka’s regime in direction of each the youngsters of Ukraine and the Belarusians themselves continues.
Certainly it does, though it has not but introduced the regime with any difficulties. The recording of situations of human rights infringements and torture in Belarus can be on-going.
Representatives of the regime know full nicely that every thing they do is being famous down and documented. What’s extra, the knowledge that the regime itself generates will likely be much more beneficial.
Diaries on paper or in digital type are being saved in Belarus. There are witnesses who take part in all these actions, and many individuals who additionally file materials away from one another, simply in case there’s a change of presidency. These are recognized information.