Hungary’s paedophile scandal might additional delay Sweden’s Nato entry, whereas weakening Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán on the EU stage.
Hungarian MPs had been ready for 21 February to see if Orbán would put Sweden’s Nato-entry ratification on the parliament’s spring agenda.
Hungary is the final of 31 Nato allies to offer Sweden the all-clear, amid rising US and German strain for Orbán to offer means.
However following the Hungarian president’s shock resignation on Saturday (10 February), the parliament will now be busy selecting a brand new head of state as an alternative, in a course of as a result of take greater than 30 days.
President Katalin Novák resigned as a result of public outrage that she wrongfully pardoned a paedophile in April final 12 months.
It was the most important scandal to hit Orbán’s ultraconservative Fidesz occasion since one in all its founders, former MEP József Szájer, was caught by Belgian police at a homosexual orgy in Brussels in the course of the pandemic.
”A delay [on Nato] is imminent,” mentioned Márton Gyöngyösi, an MEP from the Hungarian right-wing opposition occasion Jobbik.
”Loads of excuses to delay Nato ratification,” he added.
”This entire resignation affair will purchase time for Orbán concerning Nato as a result of that is now the new subject domestically,” additionally mentioned Zsuzsanna Végh, from the German Marshall Fund (GMF), a think-tank in Berlin.
One ”excuse” Orbán may give was that Hungary wanted to exchange Novák earlier than doing Nato, as a result of Hungary’s president needed to log off the Nato ratification invoice, Gyöngyösi mentioned.
However this didn’t maintain water, warned Ágnes Vadai, an MP from the Democratic Coalition, a centre-left Hungarian opposition occasion.
”There is not going to be one second with no president. She [Novák] continues to be in workplace and in the course of the election course of the speaker will take over the duties of the president,” Vadai mentioned.
”There isn’t a authorized impediment to [Nato] ratification — so it might probably occur,” she added.
Novák’s fall apart, Orbán was locked in a staring contest with Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson.
The final time they met — for quarter-hour within the corridors of an EU summit in Brussels on 1 February — Orbán advised Kristersson to come back to Budapest first as an indication of respect, however Kristersson mentioned he’d solely go to Hungary after ratification was accomplished.
Orbán’s loyalty to Nato is unsure as a result of his pleasant ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
However the Nato delay has extra to do with Orbán’s home politics and persona than with geopolitics, the GMF’s Végh mentioned.
The Hungarian chief had accused Sweden of slandering his authorities over democratic backsliding and now Orbán ”wanted some form of technique to save face,” Végh added.
”There isn’t any purpose in any respect to carry up ratification, but it surely’s very onerous to name as a result of every part will depend on him — on one particular person’s whim,” she mentioned, in a snapshot of Orbán’s intolerant system.
Fallen star
In the meantime, the Novák affair price Orbán a key MP at a fragile time in EU politics — Judit Varga.
Varga additionally resigned and give up politics on Saturday as a result of she had countersigned the paedophile’s pardon in her former position as justice minister.
She had been anticipated to guide Orbán’s European Parliament election line-up in June and was a possible future Hungarian EU commissioner, mentioned Végh.
Varga was ”highly regarded, very excessive profile — she knew Europe and she or he spoke overseas languages,” added Végh.
The Novák-Varga feminine duo was additionally meant to make Orbán’s Fidesz occasion look much less misogynistic at a time when it was courting new allies, reminiscent of Italian prime minister Roberta Meloni.
”It was necessary for the picture of the occasion each domestically and internationally,” mentioned Végh.
”They have been hyping these girls and completely them — I do not see anybody else who might change them,” mentioned Vadai, the opposition MP.
However there was no means for Varga to make a comeback, specialists mentioned — not least as a result of Varga’s ex-husband, Péter Magyar, went on a social-media rampage final weekend accusing Fidesz of a shady cover-up and of ”hiding behind girls’s skirts”.
Gyöngyösi, the opposition MEP, mentioned: ”As Orbán’s regime requires puppets, nearly anybody will do [in Fidesz’ lead EU role], who’s sufficiently servile and speaks a European language”.
The imbroglio may see Fidesz MEPs Tamás Deutsch or Balázs Hidvéghi run as Orbán’s lead EU-election candidates, Vadai and Gyöngyösi speculated.
Várhelyi 2.0
It may additionally see Fidesz loyalist Olivér Várhelyi nominated for a second time period as EU commissioner, Végh mentioned.
Várhelyi is presently accountable for the neighbourhood and enlargement portfolio, together with EU support to Ukraine and Palestine.
This portfolio had change into ”too geopolitical” for Hungary to get once more subsequent time spherical, as a result of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars, Végh mentioned.
But when Orbán and his far-right EU associates do effectively in June’s EP vote, he may attempt to invent a sizzling new EU fee portfolio for Budapest to seize as an alternative.
”It could possibly be one thing about [the] safety of democracy and households — one thing with an identitarian political profile,” Végh mentioned.