NFL Week 17 Picks: Belichick offers Payments scare, Purdy redeems himself

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BEST BETS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-11) at BUFFALO BILLS (9-6)

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LINE: Buffalo by 13

CHEWABLE: There are a number of causes to be nervous about taking the Payments. First, they laid a dozen factors towards the Chargers final Saturday and received by two, and three of their final 4 video games have been determined by a subject aim or much less whereas solely two of their final 11 have been determined by a couple of rating … The Patriots have received two of their final three, beginning with a 21-18 victory in Pittsburgh that threw a wrench into the Steelers’ playoff plans. They did the same quantity on the Broncos in Denver with a 26-23 victory that left the house workforce clinging to an 8% playoff likelihood and successfully ended Russell Wilson’s time in Colorado … Solely one among New England’s final 5 losses have been by a couple of rating, and allow us to not neglect that the Patriots additionally beat the Payments 29-25 in Week 7, with Mac Jones throwing for 272 yards … Payments have an 87% playoff likelihood however should be greater issues, such because the AFC East title, which they are going to play for subsequent week in the event that they beat the Patriots and the Dolphins lose in Baltimore … The Patriots defence is second-best towards the run, and solely seven groups have allowed extra whole yards of offence … This might be the final time we see Invoice Belichick coach the Patriots towards the Payments. Since taking on in New England, he has crushed Buffalo 37 of 45 occasions. I’m not saying he’s going to do it once more, however I can’t see him not giving western New York at the very least yet one more scare.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +13

SCORE (O/U 40.5): Payments 21, Patriots 17

LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS (5-10)

LINE: L.A. Rams by 5.5

CHEWABLE: Wouldn’t a big proportion of bettors again the guests right here if the unfold was two unconverted TDs as a substitute of 1? Rams are trying like a contender with stellar play on each side of the ball, whereas the Giants don’t have anything on the road and are taking one other nostril dive … Gorgeous upsets happen on this state of affairs usually, and it’s conceivable that veteran QB Tyrod Taylor may flip in an heroic efficiency for the Giants. However the Rams are a veteran workforce that received the Tremendous Bowl a few years in the past and, nonetheless at only a 67% playoff likelihood, are unlikely to make the error of taking any opponent frivolously. They’re additionally 9-5-1 ATS and are 2-0-0 as a visiting favorite.

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS -5.5

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Rams 30, Giants 17

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-11)

LINE: San Francisco by 12.5

CHEWABLE: The Commanders are within the unenviable place of dealing with the NFL’s finest all-round workforce per week after it was embarrassed in a 14-point loss to the NFL’s second-best all-round workforce. Anxious for redemption needs to be Brock Purdy, whose 4 interceptions led to the 49ers’ loss to Baltimore and likewise may cost a little him the MVP award. Purdy now faces the Commanders, who rankings present have the second-worst cross defence within the league and quit extra yardage to large receivers than any workforce. In addition they quit numerous receiving yardage to RBs popping out of the backfield. So yeah, massive days for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey  … Jacoby Brissett will begin at quarterback for the Commanders after finishing 18 of 23 cross makes an attempt for 224 yards and three TDs in aid of Sam Howell the final two video games. The Niners might need damaged the profession document for many sacks by one workforce in a sport (14, set by the 1952 Eagles versus Giants) had Washington gone again to Howell, who has been sacked a league-leading 60 occasions … At simply 8-7-0 ATS, the Niners have damaged some hearts, however the Commanders have misplaced six in a row and given up at the very least 28 factors in every.

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TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -12.5

SCORE (O/U 49): Niners 43, Commanders 14

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DETROIT LIONS (11-4) at DALLAS COWBOYS (10-5)

LINE: Dallas by 5.5

CHEWABLE: They have been dancin’ within the streets of Motown when the Lions clinched the division title for the primary time in 30 years with final week’s win over the Vikings. Whereas Detroit nonetheless has a shot at No. 1 seed, the Cowboys can be extra determined for a victory after dropping their final two video games, and with high spot within the NFC East up for grabs they should be extraordinarily assured as they return to the comforts of residence. The Cowboys are 7-0 at AT&T Stadium, the place they’ve averaged nearly 40 factors a sport whereas outscoring opponents 279-108 … Solely three groups have allowed extra speeding yards than the Lions, however accidents of their secondary have left Detroit susceptible to aerial assaults. Wringing his massive mitts is Dak Prescott, who has 20 TD passes towards simply two picks at residence, and whose profession document towards the Lions is 4-0, with 9 TD passes and no interceptions … The Cowboys have received the final 5 conferences and haven’t misplaced a house sport to the Lions in 12 years … With the best way I’m leaning, there’s concern that Dan Campbell is 16-4 ATS when an underdog of 4-plus factors. Okay, I’m over it.

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TAKING: DALLAS -5.5

SCORE (O/U 53.5): Cowboys 34, Lions 28

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-4) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-3)

LINE: Baltimore by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Dolphins have the NFL’s highest-scoring offence and, with final week’s walk-off subject aim towards Dallas, are coming off their first victory towards an opponent with a successful document. The Ravens have the league’s stingiest defence, which has held opponents to a league-low 16.3 factors per sport, and completely dominated the highly effective Niners 33-19 final Monday. Because the groups battle for high seed within the AFC, I’m remembering their assembly in Week 2 at M&T Financial institution Stadium final season, when the Dolphins rallied from a 35-14 deficit with a bit over 12 minutes left to win 42-38. The Ravens didn’t have a solution for Tyreek Hill, who had 11 catches for 190 yards and two fourth-quarter TDs, and I’m unsure it’s any completely different now … Dolphins large receiver Jaylen Waddle (ankle) is unlikely to play … The Ravens may have an emotional sag after such a loud assertion final week. Of be aware: Lamar Jackson is 9-19 ATS as a favorite of greater than three factors, and Ravens are simply 4-3 ATS at residence.

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TAKING: MIAMI +3.5

SCORE (O/U 47): Ravens 24, Dolphins 23

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-8) at CHICAGO BEARS (6-9)

LINE: Chicago by 3

CHEWABLE: The recent-and-cold Falcons are spectacular after they can run the ball like they did in a 29-10 victory over the Colts final week, which noticed them pound the bottom 30 occasions for 177 yards. However the Colts’ ‘D’ is twenty eighth towards the run, whereas the Bears are first, permitting 80.7 floor yards per sport … The Bears have received 4 of their final six, with the 2 losses coming in late-game collapses towards the Lions and Browns. They may have hassle with Atlanta’s defence, which, in the event you take out the 29-25 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 14, has surrendered a median of 9 factors per sport over the opposite three of their final 4 … The Falcons have additionally surrendered the sixth-most speeding yardage to opposing quarterbacks and Justin Fields, who was born simply outdoors of Atlanta, ought to wipe out the ten% playoff likelihood to which his hometown workforce is clinging … The Bears have lined 5 straight weeks.

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TAKING: CHICAGO -3

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bears 26, Falcons 20

TENNESSEE TITANS (5-10) at HOUSTON TEXANS (8-7)

LINE: Houston by 5.5

CHEWABLE: The return of QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) can be large for the Texans, as each groups battle defending the cross and the rookie is clearly extra lethal heaving the pigskin than Case Keenum. That mentioned, Keenum led the Texans to a 19-16 OT win in Nashville two weeks in the past, one among three, three-point losses (together with a victory over the Dolphins) Tennessee has suffered within the final 4 video games … Amongst their final three video games, the Texans have been blown out by the Jets and the Browns … Nonetheless a heavy favorite to be named rookie of the 12 months, Stroud has accomplished simply 60% of his passes whereas throwing solely three TD passes in his final three begins … The Texans are 6-3-0 ATS however 1-5-0 as a favorite … Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel is 25-13 ATS as an underdog of three+ factors … The Titans may even have their rookie QB (Will Smith) getting back from damage and are able to taking part in the spoiler position.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +5.5

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Texans 23, Titans 21

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7)

LINE: Indianapolis by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The interim tag ought to come off Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce, and never simply because the Raiders are 4-3 since he took over from Josh McDaniel, or as a result of opponents are averaging simply 15.3 factors towards Las Vegas in these seven video games, whereas they have been giving up 23.4 factors per of their first eight. The largest motive the Raiders ought to go into subsequent season with Pierce is that he led them to a 20-14 victory in Kansas Metropolis final week along with his quarterback, Aidan O’Connell, connecting on solely 9 of 21 cross makes an attempt for 62 yards whereas not finishing a single cross after the primary quarter. After beating Patrick Mahomes, Pierce ought to be capable to maintain Gardner Minshew … The Colts’ playoff likelihood is 53%, however it seems like they blew their likelihood after they folded final week towards Atlanta.

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS +3.5

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Raiders 21, Colts 20

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-13) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-7)

LINE: Jacksonville by 6.5

CHEWABLE: The Panthers are coming off their finest offensive sport of the season in a 33-30 loss to the Packers — scoring 20 factors within the second half alone — whereas Bryce Younger really resembled a NFL quarterback, finishing 23 of 36 cross makes an attempt whereas going over 300 yards for the primary time … The Jaguars have turned a nook too, solely they’re headed the flawed means. Whereas it as soon as appeared like they have been going to run and conceal from the remainder of the AFC South, they’ve now misplaced 4 straight. Heading into their greatest sport of the season, they’ve signed and activated Matt Barkley as insurance coverage if No. 1 QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) can’t go. The Jaguars are his eleventh workforce within the final 10 seasons … If Lawrence does play, it’s not just like the Jags are sitting fairly. He has thrown 5 picks in his final three video games and led Jacksonville to 19 factors within the final two … Now can be a very good time to remind you that the Panthers’ cross defence ranks fourth, whereas the Jaguars’ cross defence is twenty ninth.

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TAKING: CAROLINA +6.5

SCORE (O/U 38): Panthers 23, Jaguars 21

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-12) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-4)

LINE: Philadelphia by 10.5

CHEWABLE: Too many factors to put on an Eagles workforce that misplaced three straight, then held on to win 33-25 towards the Giants, who outscored them 22-13 within the second half. Philadelphia does have a robust offence and the Cardinals have a putrid defence, however Kyler Murray will put up some factors towards a defence that ranks twenty seventh towards the cross … The Cardinals are 7-8-0 ATS whereas the Eagles are 7-6-2 ATS  … Justin Fields had 9 carries for 97 yards towards Arizona final week. Jalen Hurts can do one thing related if he’s not too busy burning Playing cards corners with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown … D’Andre Swift had 20 carries for 92 yards and a TD towards the Giants on Christmas Day and may have nice success towards the worst run defence within the NFL.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +10.5

SCORE (O/U 48): Eagles 30, Cardinals 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-8) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-7)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 2.5

CHEWABLE: Baker Mayfield has the third-shortest odds to win Comeback Participant of the Yr Award after guiding the Bucs to 4 straight wins — throwing eight TD passes towards no picks within the final three — and situating Tampa Bay because the heavy favorite to win the NFC South … Despite the fact that the Bucs are simply 3-4 ATS at residence, they’ve lined in seven of their final 10 and are tied for the most effective general ATS document within the league at 10-5 … The Saints are 4-10-1 ATS and haven’t lined on the highway since Week 5, and the mixed document of the groups they’ve defeated this season is 30-60 … The Bucs defeated the Saints 26-9 in Week 4, permitting Derek Carr 127 passing yards whereas finishing 23-of-37 for a paltry 3.4 common … After a 30-22 loss to the Rams final Thursday, the Saints’ playoff likelihood is slim (12%) to none, and Slim is about to depart city.

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TAKING: TAMPA BAY -2.5

SCORE (O/U 42.5): Bucs 27, Saints 23

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-7)

LINE: Seattle by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Mason Rudolph had the Steelers offence trying higher than it has in a very long time when, in his first begin of the season, he threw for 290 yards and two TDs in an sudden flattening of the Bengals final week … The Steelers simply should win one among their remaining two video games to make sure Mike Tomlin seventeenth straight season with no dropping document, however extra importantly, successful each, together with subsequent week’s go to to Baltimore, their possibilities of making the playoffs go from the 17% they’re at now to 92% … The Seahawks are coming off back-to-back 20-17 wins over the Eagles and Titans to spice up their playoff likelihood to 69% … Since their bye, the Seahawks are 5-6. Of the 5 wins, just one was by greater than 4 factors … The Steelers defence boasts extra massive playmakers, however neither workforce places up sufficient resistance. Towards the run, the Steelers rank twentieth and the Seahawks are twenty seventh. Towards the cross, the Seahawks are nineteenth and the Steelers are twenty first … From a betting standpoint, the hook is just too attractive to cross.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +3.5

SCORE (O/U 41): Seahawks 30, Steelers 28

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-6)

LINE: Kansas Metropolis by 7

CHEWABLE: The defending champs are sliding off their throne. The Chiefs’ loss to the Raiders final week represented one among their worst offensive outings of the Patrick Mahomes period. It was additionally their third in 4 video games and fourth of their final six. Together with all of the frustration they’re displaying, it seems to be now like they’ve zero likelihood of repeating … The Bengals’ playoff likelihood is right down to 23% after final week’s face plant in Pittsburgh, which got here on the heels of victories over the Jaguars, Colts and Vikings. It bounces as much as 59% with a victory in Okay.C, the place they’ve received and misplaced by three factors of their final two visits … The Chiefs doubtless can be with out their finest offensive participant, Isiah Pacheco, who now has a concussion to associate with his shoulder damage. The Bengals predict the return of their finest, Ja’Marr Chase, who was again at observe this week after lacking one sport with a shoulder damage … The Chiefs are 3-4 ATS at residence, and whereas they’ll rally the troops and win outright, this unfold is means too massive.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI +7

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Chiefs 24, Bengals 21

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-10) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-8)

LINE: Denver by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Clinging to their playoff hopes by a wee (8%) thread after a loss to the Patriots final week, the Broncos prompted this line to drop two full factors after they benched Russell Wilson. How can Denver be higher off with Jarrett Stidham, a fourth-round choose in 2019 who’s 0-2 in profession begins, over a Tremendous Bowl winner, until gamers are proud of the transfer and rally across the backup … The Broncos are 1-3 since a five-game successful streak erased their horrid begin, with that victory being a 24-7 beating of the Chargers … Wanting impressed underneath interim head coach Giff Smith, the Chargers would have upset the Payments final week had Buffalo’s Gabe Davis not performed his finest sport of the season. The Chargers’ new quarterback, Easton Stick, confirmed flashes of promise … The Chargers may additionally having Joey Bosa return from a foot damage, a growth that might make issues troublesome for an unexperienced QB who already can be worrying about Khalil Mack … With all their accidents, the Chargers don’t have the offensive expertise of their opponents. The Broncos ought to win their final residence sport of the season, however it is going to be an in depth one.

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TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS +3.5

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Broncos 21, Chargers 20

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-8) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-8)

LINE: Minnesota by 2

CHEWABLE: Attention-grabbing finale to Week 17 has the Vikings going again to Jaren Corridor — who can be making his second profession begin after Nick Mullens threw six interceptions in his two spins on the wheel — whereas they go ahead the remainder of the season with out TE T.J. Hockenson (ACL/MCL) and edge rusher D.J. Wonnum (quad) … The Packers have a 26% playoff likelihood and have benched standout CB Jaire Alexander … The Packers are 3-5 ATS on the highway, whereas the Vikings are 2-5 ATS at residence, however I’m going with the house workforce anyway. Brian Flores oversees one of many high blitzing defences within the league, and the Packers’ season hit an enormous bump within the highway when Jordan Love couldn’t deal with blitzing the Giants did in a essential Week 14 loss. Additionally as a result of the Packers are so dangerous defensively, particularly towards the run, and Ty Chandler might be in for an additional triple-digit speeding day.

TAKING: MINNESOTA -2

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Vikings 20, Packers 17

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