NFL WEEK 14 PICKS: Payments, Broncos and ’Boys are Week 14’s finest bets

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BEST BETS

BUFFALO BILLS (6-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-4)

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LINE: Kansas Metropolis by 1.5

CHEWABLE: After dropping three of 4 the Payments had a bye final week to regroup and put together for what will likely be a really troublesome highway to a playoff spot. It begins at a venue the place they know they’ll win, as they’ve taken two of their final three in Okay.C., with the one defeat coming in additional time of a divisional playoff recreation … Josh Allen is the one QB to beat Patrick Mahomes twice at Arrowhead … The Chiefs defence, which gained them video games whereas Mahomes’ receivers have been dropping passes earlier within the season, has struggled of late. After giving up 105 factors within the first seven video games, they’ve allowed 103 within the final 5. Kansas Metropolis is an uncharacteristic 2-3 since Oct. 29  …. The Chiefs are coming off a 27-19 defeat through which they have been torched by Jordan Love for 267 yards and three TDs, with Christian Watson catching seven passes for 71 yards and a pair of scores. The tandem certainly would have achieved extra harm had Watson not left the the sport with a hamstring damage. Allen and Stefon Diggs have been taking notes … Whereas I wouldn’t be stunned if the Payments discovered a option to get Leonard Fournette on the energetic roster this week, James Cook dinner ought to have success towards the Chiefs’ Nineteenth-ranked run defence … On the similar time, Isiah Pacheco will discover daylight with the Payments’ Twentieth-ranked run defence — if he performs. Heading into Friday, Pacheco (shoulder) had but to follow this week … The Chiefs haven’t misplaced back-to-back video games since Week 2-3 of the 2021 season. The determined Payments change that Sunday.

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TAKING: BUFFALO +1.5

SCORE (O/U 48.5): Payments 33, Chiefs 30

DENVER BRONCOS (6-6) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-7)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 2.5

CHEWABLE: Apart from the very fact the house group has gained the final seven video games on this sequence, there’s no apparent cause the Chargers needs to be favoured. They’ve tasted victory as soon as of their final 4 outings, final week’s 6-0 shutout of the Patriots, and solely the Commanders have allowed extra passing yardage … When he is ready to see round Khalil Mack — who has recorded two sacks a recreation in every of the final three video games to take over the league lead with 15 — Russell Wilson ought to have a optimistic bounce-back from his three-interception efficiency towards the Texans. Solely the Commanders have allowed extra passing yardage than the Chargers … And solely Tyreek Hill (12) and Mike Evans (10) have extra receiving TDs than Courtland Sutton’s 9 … Justin Herbert has only one dependable goal in Keenan Allen, and the Broncos have top-of-the-line defences with regards to defending slots … As soon as thought of one of many prime twin threats within the NFL, Austin Ekeler had 14 carries for 18 yards and two catches for 9 yards towards the Pats. He has recorded greater than 100 yards from scrimmage simply thrice this season … Wilson is 34-17 ATS as an underdog and, since his second season, he’s 32-15 ATS after a loss.

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TAKING: DENVER +2.5

SCORE (O/U 44): Broncos 24, Chargers 21

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (9-3)

LINE: Dallas by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Final week I made the error of overlooking Philadelphia’s defensive points and took the Eagles, and three factors, as they hosted the Niners. Everyone knows how that turned out. Together with attempting to chase Philadelphia down for prime spot within the NFC East, the Cowboys will likely be looking for revenge for a 28-22 loss at The Linc, and now they’ve the Eagles proper the place they need them. Dallas is 6-0 at dwelling, having outscored opponents a mean of 41-15.9, whereas Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,854 yards (common 309) for 18 TDs and two interceptions. Now he faces the Eagles’ Twenty ninth-ranked move defence, with loads of time to proceed his pursuit of the MVP award. The Eagles’ third-down sack fee of 5.3% is the bottom within the NFL … Whereas Jalen Hurts will information the Eagles to a optimistic bounce-back from their 42-19 loss to the Niners — and he can have TE Dallas Goedert getting back from damage — the Cowboys have the fifth-ranked move defence. If Philly abides by the needs of their followers to RUN THE BALL it is going to be towards the Twelfth-ranked floor recreation stoppers … The Cowboys are 5-0-0 ATS the final 5 instances the Eagles have landed in Dallas, and I’m not making the identical mistake once more with Philly.

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TAKING: DALLAS -3.5

SCORE (O/U 51.5): Cowboys 34, Eagles 27

THE REST ….

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-5)

LINE: Cleveland by 3

CHEWABLE: The race for the AFC South title will get an entire lot extra fascinating if Trevor Lawrence is compelled to overlook time due to an ankle damage. If he doesn’t play this week his substitute as Jags QB will likely be, C.J. Beathard, who can be making his first begin since 2020, with the daunting problem of dealing with the NFL’s No. 1 defence. With Lawrence on the controls, the Jags misplaced their two earlier video games this season towards Prime 5 ‘D’s — Chiefs and Niners — by a mixed rating of 55-12 … Beathard made 12 begins with San Fran from 2017-2020 and was 2-10 file … Joe Flacco accomplished 52.3 p.c of his passes for 254 yards, a few TDs and a choose in his first begin for the Browns, final week’s 17-point highway loss to the Rams, however with Dorian Thompson-Robinson returning to follow this week, Kevin Stefanski is holding off on naming his QB towards the Jags … I learn someplace that the Jaguars are 1-12 when taking part in in 7C or colder climate. Sunday’s forecast in Cleveland is for 5C and rain … Browns want this yet another and are 3-0-0 ATS as a house favorite.

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TAKING: CLEVELAND -3

SCORE (O/U 30.5): Browns 17, Jags 13

LOS ANGELES RAMS (6-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3)

LINE: Baltimore by 7.5

CHEWABLE: The Rams have three straight wins whereas scoring 73 factors within the final two, together with 36 towards the stingy Browns. Why? RB Kyren Williams is again from the IR and QB Matthew Stafford is absolutely recovered from a thumb problem … Lacking Mark Andrews, the Ravens have been clutching a three-point lead till the final two minutes of their 20-10 win over the Chargers heading into final week’s bye … Excluding Week 1, Lamar Jackson is 8-19 ATS as a house favorite when laying 3.5 factors or extra … The Rams have misplaced their final 5 video games performed in cold-weathered cities, their final 10 when dealing with a Prime 10 defence and are 0-4-1 ATS of their final 5 journeys to Baltimore. There’s additionally the Lamar Jackson issue. He’s 18-3 SU towards NFC opponents. And revenge time for Odell Beckham Jr.  That famous, I’m nonetheless liking the guests and their well-rounded offence to maintain this one shut.

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +7.5

SCORE (O/U 39.5): Ravens 24, Rams 23

DETROIT LIONS (9-3) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-8)

LINE: Detroit by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Bears can be coming off their bye using a three-game successful streak had they not blown a 12-point lead in Detroit in Week 11. They’re tied with the Niners for the league’s finest run defence within the league and they are going to be seeking to make David Montgomery’s homecoming a depressing one after the previous Bear scored the sport successful TD towards them in Motown … In that one, Justin Fields carried the ball 18 instances for 104 yards. He’ll have comparable success this week … In New Orleans final Sunday, the Lions jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead however needed to maintain on for a five-point win. On the highway once more, they’ll miss the Superdome on what is anticipated to be a brisk and probably moist day at Soldier Discipline … The Lions are 4-0 ATS as a highway favorite and 6-1 ATS of their final seven highway video games total, however they’ve been unravelling defensively for the final six weeks. Anticipate this to be one other shut one, and don’t be stunned if the canine take a chew out of the guests.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +3.5

SCORE (O/U 41.5): Bears 27, Lions 24

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-11) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-7)

LINE: New Orleans by 5

CHEWABLE: Derek Carr is banged up and will sit down whereas Jameis Winston will get his first begin of the season towards the Panthers unheralded fourth-ranked Panthers move defence … In 12 profession video games versus Carolina, Winston has thrown 10 TD passes and 18 interceptions … Winston versus Bryce Younger can be a showdown between former first total picks and former Heisman winners. Younger has typically been brutal as a rookie, passing for greater than 200 yards in simply 4 of his 11 begins … Alberta product Chuba Hubbard had 25 carries for 104 yards and two TDs because the Panthers misplaced their first recreation post-Frank Reich, 21-18 in Tampa. Hubbard ought to have extra success towards a Saints run defence that ranks twenty fourth, simply as Alvin Kamara is prone to eat up some actual property towards the Panthers’ Twenty third-ranked move defence … The Saints are 0-4-0 as a house favorite however Carolina is 1-5-1 as a highway canine … The Saints gained the primary assembly of the season 20-17 however have misplaced three in a row, and Taysom Hill didn’t follow Wednesday due to a number of accidents. Anticipate the Panthers to proceed using the small wave that comes with a training change.

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TAKING: CAROLINA +5

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Saints 21, Panthers 17

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-7) at ATLANTA FALCONS (6-6)

LINE: Atlanta by 1.5

CHEWABLE: You’d be ok with the Falcons creating a little bit respiration room atop the NFC South if that they had somebody apart from Desmond Ridder as their quarterback. As a result of he’s what he’s, Atlanta gained’t be capable of capitalize towards a weak Tampa Bay move defence, whereas Bijan Robinson will likely be in robust towards the Bucs’ Prime 10 run cease … The Falcons gained the Week 7 matchup, 16-13, however held a commanding 401-329 edge in whole offence … The Falcons are 1-4-0 ATS as a house favorite whereas Tampa Bay is 5-1-0 as a highway canine. In a recreation that may very well be determined by a coin flip, that’s ok for me.

TAKING: TAMPA BAY +1.5

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SCORE (O/U 41): Buccaneers 17, Falcons 14

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-6)

LINE: Cincinnati by 1 

CHEWABLE: Sure, the Colts have gained 4 in a row and sure, Gardner Minshew continues to be their quarterback. However let’s not get carried away. Their opponents in the course of the successful streak are a mixed 12-36, and their margin of victories have been 3, 4, 7 and 14. And in regards to the discuss that their defence being “so good” of late — towards Will Levis, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Younger, they’ve allowed a mean of 20 factors, whereas holding the Patriots to 6. They nonetheless rank twenty sixth in common factors allowed and twenty sixth towards the run, though their floor cease unit will likely be bolstered by the return of DT Grover Stewart from a six-game suspension … The Bengals have allowed extra yards per recreation than each different group within the league, and their run-stoppers can have their palms full attempting to include Zack Moss …If the No. 1 QB of every group was taking part in, Anthony Richardson versus Joe Burrow, Cincinnati can be a substantial favorite. As it’s, I’m offered on Jake Browning to have the ability to get the job achieved after watching him full 32 of 37 move makes an attempt for 354 yards and a TD with out turning the ball over in Monday 34-31 highway win in Jacksonville.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI -1

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Bengals 28, Colts 24

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) at NEW YORK JETS (4-8) 

LINE: Houston by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Zach is again, whether or not he desires to be or not. The Jets have misplaced 5 in a row and are giving the quarterback’s reins to Zach Wilson, who they’ve benched thrice in three years and who, in accordance with stories, was reluctant to get again on the sphere till Aaron Rodgers had a chat with him … The Texans have gained 4 of their final 5 however will likely be lacking distinctive WR Tank Dell, who they’ve misplaced for the season with an ankle damage … The very best wager for this recreation is the over, with CJ Stroud being very troublesome to include and Wilson prone to have a raised stage of play after being benched for Tim Boyle, who is simply barely extra certified to be a NFL quarterback than my next-door neighbour … I’ll resist the temptation of backing the Jets and their No. 9-ranked defence as a result of offensively, solely the Giants have averaged fewer yards per recreation, whlie solely the Giants and Patriots have scored fewer factors. There’s additionally the uncertainly surrounding of RB Breece Corridor (ankle), so I’m ignoring the Texans’ 1-4-0 ATS file as favourites.

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TAKING: HOUSTON -3.5

SCORE (O/U 33): Texans 24, Jets 17

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-6) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-3)

LINE: San Francisco by 10.5

CHEWABLE: The Niners are the very best group within the NFL. They’ve gained their final 4 video games by no fewer than 13 factors and a mean rating of 33.5 to 14.8. In addition they have gained their final 4 towards the Seahawks, together with a 31-13 pounding two weeks in the past in Seattle. However for that Thanksgiving Thursday conflict, there was a query as as to if Geno Smith may even play by means of an elbow damage and when he didn’t play effectively, I confidently took the Cowboys and laid the 8.5 towards the Seahawks final week. Properly, Geno had his Comeback Participant of Yr type and nearly upset Dallas, and now I’m rationalizing why he may cowl towards the highly effective Niners. It’s straightforward to do. San Fran is coming off a dominating show towards the Eagles and simply proved they’ll handle Seattle. The Niners’ motivation stage will likely be down a quart. The Seahawks have revenge on their minds and are clinging to playoffs aspirations. They’ll be taking part in this one prefer it’s their Tremendous Bowl. They practiced Wednesday with out their prime two working backs, however Pete Carroll was optimistic in regards to the standing of Kenneth Walker III (indirect) and Zach Charbonnet (bruised knee). Pete additionally can be optimistic in a blinding blizzard.

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TAKING: SEATTLE +10.5

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Niners 30, Seahawks 26

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-6) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-7)

LINE: Minnesota by 3

CHEWABLE: Justin Jefferson returns from a seven-game absence and nobody will likely be happier to see arguably the very best WR within the league than Josh Dobbs, who’s getting one other begin regardless of his six turnovers within the final two video games … The Raiders have misplaced two in a row and have averaged simply 15.1 factors over their final three video games. Lacking from their follow as of Wednesday have been a few large items to their puzzle, Maxx Crosby and LT Kolton Miller … Alexander Mattison ought to be capable of discover daylight within the Raiders’ Twenty fifth-ranked run defence whereas Josh Jacobs can have extra bother with the Vikings,  who rank seventh towards the run … The Raiders have scored greater than 21 factors simply as soon as this season and I don’t belief rookie QB Aidan O’Connell — who will likely be dealing with a defence that blitzes greater than another — or first-time OC Bo Hardegree to push them over that mark towards a group determined to snap a two-game dropping streak and keep alive within the playoff race.

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TAKING: MINNESOTA -3 

SCORE (O/U 40.5): Vikings 28, Raiders 17

TENNESSEE TITANS (4-8) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-3)

LINE: Miami by 13

CHEWABLE: Together with the house opening 70-20 win over the Broncos, the Dolphins are 5-0 at Laborious Rock Stadium with their common margin of victory of 21.4 factors … Final week, they destroyed the Commanders 45-15 with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill hooking up for 5 receptions, 157 yards and two touchdowns towards Washington’s Thirty second-ranked move defence …. The Titans, who’re 0-6 on the highway with a mean margin of defeat of 11.6 factors, aren’t fairly as ineffective towards aerial assaults however shut, rating twenty second … Rookie De’Von Achane proved he’s wholesome final week in becoming a member of Raheem Mostert within the Dolphins backfield and carrying the ball 17 instances for 73 yards and two majors. The Titans’ run defence ranks thirteenth however will likely be lacking excellent DL Jeffery Simmons, who’s to overlook time with a knee damage. Opposite to stories, coach Mike Vrabel stated Derrick Henry will not be in concussion protocol and in line to play, though he shouldn’t get a lot going towards the Dolphins’ eighth-ranked run defence … As a lot as it’s possible you’ll hate giving up that many factors, swimming with the Fish is the play right here.

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TAKING: MIAMI -13

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Dolphins 41, Titans 14

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-6) at NEW YORK GIANTS (4-8)

LINE: Inexperienced Bay by 6.5

CHEWABLE: Let’s begin with the very fact the Packers have gained their final 16 video games performed in December. With eight landing passes and no interceptions in his final three video games (and 10-2 in his final 4), Jordan Love appears to be like able to proceed that chilly custom within the first December begin of his profession. It’s not simply Love; week-by-week we’re studying he has a powerful group of younger receivers at his disposal. If Christian Watson (hamstring) can’t go, Dontayvion Wicks appears to be like greater than able to taking his place. The Giants’ Twentieth-ranked move defence needs to be straightforward pickings, whereas A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones (if he’s in a position to go) will dance although New York’s Twenty eighth-ranked run defence … Tommy DeVito had plenty of success towards the Commanders secondary, however who doesn’t? Apart from the one outing, he has been unremarkable beneath centre for the Giants … If Large Blue retains it shut, it is going to be as a result of Saquon Barkley is having success towards the Packers’ run defence, which ranks thirtieth. I’d moderately go along with the Packers, who have been very impressed beating the Chiefs by eight final week.

TAKING: GREEN BAY -6.5

SCORE (O/U 36.5): Packers 27, Giants 13

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