We had been 2 yards — 2 yards! — away from an ideal Week 12.
Though I’m a Jaguars fan, I used to be rooting for his or her recreation towards the Texans final week to enter time beyond regulation, as Travis Etienne wanted simply 2 extra yards from scrimmage to safe a 4-for-4 week with my picks.
We’ll search for that good outing in Week 13.
I’ve scoured the PrizePicks foyer and have discovered my favourite 4 choices for Sunday’s slate.
Tua Tagovailoa greater than 282.5 passing yards
The situation of concern with this decide can be if the Dolphins stand up massive within the first half after which coast to victory.
Nonetheless, we’ve seen the Commanders sustain with good opponents this season and we’ve seen the Dolphins hold their foot on the gasoline in video games the place they’ve been forward.
The matchup doesn’t get any higher than this for Tagovailoa, as Washington ranks final in each DVOA towards the go and dropback EPA.
Tagovailoa has thrown for greater than 300 yards 3 times this season and will have loads of time within the pocket for the reason that Commanders traded away their two finest go rushers on the deadline.
Jaylen Warren greater than 77.5 dashing + receiving yards
Even when you don’t consider the swap in offensive coordinators will result in extra touches for Warren, the Steelers operating again finds himself in an elite matchup at residence.
The Cardinals are thirtieth in each DVOA towards the run and rush EPA.
Even in a cut up position with Najee Harris, Warren has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his final 4 video games.
I like taking the dashing and receiving projection right here, because it offers him extra outs.
He’s closely concerned in each points, so I’d somewhat mix the yardage as a substitute of counting on dashing or receiving alone.
Derrick Henry greater than 62.5 dashing yards
Henry was featured in final week’s article, and whereas it took him all 4 quarters, he did find yourself with sufficient dashing yards to exceed his projection.
Betting on the NFL?
I’m going again to the effectively in Week 13, as it’s formally D-Henber (D-Henry + December) — the time of 12 months when the Titans operating again all the time appears to play his finest.
He attracts an exploitable matchup at residence towards the Colts, who’re twenty fourth in DVOA towards the run and twenty third in rush EPA.
Henry has averaged greater than 20 carries in video games the Titans have gained this season, so when you suppose they are often aggressive on this one, you ought to be assured in his potential to rack up not less than 63 dashing yards.
Chris Boswell greater than 1.5 discipline targets made
Boswell has made not less than two discipline targets in seven of his final 10 video games, and through that stretch, the Steelers have been one of many worst offensive groups within the NFL.
A coordinator change helped the offense final week, and now the Steelers draw an elite matchup at residence towards the Cardinals, who’re thirtieth or worse in DVOA towards the run and the go.
Count on the Steelers to maneuver the ball at will on this recreation, which suggests extra scoring alternatives and hopefully extra discipline objective makes an attempt.