NFL WEEK 13 PICKS: Staying scorching by barking on 9 canine in 12 video games

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BEST BETS

DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (6-5)

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LINE: Houston by 3.5

CHEWABLE: In case you missed it, yours really was 13-3 final week, together with 3-0 on finest bets. It took a dozen weeks, however I’m formally en fuego … Talking of scorching, the Broncos are proper there with the Eagles as house owners of the present longest (5 video games) successful streaks within the NFL, but they’re nonetheless an underdog of greater than a subject aim towards the Texans? Undoubtedly it has one thing to do with the way in which they’re successful, which doesn’t appear sustainable. Denver is +13 in turnover ratio through the streak, which is +5 higher than some other workforce over the past 5 video games. After which, in fact, there’s the C.J. Stroud issue. The Texans’ sensational QB has averaged 366.5 passing yards whereas turning into the primary rookie in NFL historical past to eclipse the 300-yard mark in 4 straight video games. Houston ought to nonetheless be perturbed by its 24-21 loss to the Jaguars final week when Matt Ammendola’s final minute 58-yard subject aim attempt bounced off the crossbar … Stroud’s streak might proceed towards the Broncos, who’re Twenty third towards the cross however have improved considerably. Denver additionally has allowed a league-worst 155.2 speeding yards towards per recreation, which might imply one other huge day for Devin Singletary … Houston’s defence is the alternative. Eighth towards the run however a poor twenty seventh versus the cross. Look ahead to the chemistry between Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton to proceed its improvement … The never-bet-against-a-streak factor does apply with the Broncos, as a result of they will’t hold stealing possession, particularly towards a workforce just like the Texans, who’ve given the ball away a fifth-lowest 11 instances all season. However I’m additionally not going to disrespect Wilson, who’s 34-16 ATS as a canine, by saying the Broncos gained’t hold this one shut, particularly towards a Texans workforce that’s 0-4 as a favorite, with three of these video games at house.

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TAKING: DENVER +3.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Texans 28, Broncos 27

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-10) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-7)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 5.5

CHEWABLE: Taking the workforce that at the moment holds the No. 1 draft choose in 2024 to not solely cowl however win this week is a ballsy transfer. Nevertheless it’s additionally very tempting. Right here’s why: Since 2018, a complete of 13 groups have canned their coach through the season. These groups had been a mixed 31-78-3 (.290) earlier than the firing, and 8-5 (.615) within the first recreation with the interim coach. Additionally, since 2010, groups that fireside the pinnacle coach are 15-10 ATS within the first recreation after pulling the set off … Is eliminating head coach Frank Reich and two of his assistants, then placing the reins within the arms of assistant particular groups coordinator Chris Tabor, in some way going to make Bryce Younger immediately higher? No, however the No. 1 choose general couldn’t be any worse than he was final Sunday, his fourth straight recreation of lower than 200 passing yards over which he has averaged 168.6 yards. That’s virtually 200 yards per recreation lower than Stroud, which prompts the query: Ought to proprietor David Tepper not have fired basic supervisor Scott Fitterer as an alternative of three coaches? … Younger ought to have the ability to get one thing going towards the Bucs, who’ve the second-worst cross defence within the league … In the meantime, the Panthers rank fifth towards the cross, whereas solely the Chiefs and Jets have allowed extra manufacturing to exterior receivers than Carolina. That can make issues troublesome for Mike Evans to gather tosses from Baker Mayfield, who already is hobbling with a nasty ankle … The Panthers are twenty fourth towards the run, however the Bucs hand the ball commonly to Rachaad White, who did have his first 100-yard recreation of the season final week towards the Colts however earlier than that was averaging a brutal (for a lead again) 45.9 yards per recreation.

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TAKING: CAROLINA +5.5

SCORE (O/U 37): Panthers 21, Bucs 20

CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-6) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-3)

LINE: Jacksonville by 8.5

CHEWABLE: Bengals quarterback Jake Browning just isn’t horrible. The alternative for Joe Burrow proved that in his first begin, a 16-10 loss to the defensively stout Steelers final week, wherein he accomplished greater than 73% of his passes (19 of 26) for 227 yards, a TD and a choose. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t a MVP candidate. In 11 video games he has 12 TD passes and 7 interceptions … The Jaguars are fourth towards the run, which seemingly means a quiet evening popping out of the backfield for Joe Mixon. However they’re additionally twenty eighth towards the cross, and it appears like Tee Higgins might return from a hamstring harm to provide Browning  one other prolific goal … The Jags had 445 yards of offence in final week’s shut win over the Texans that marked their seventh in eight video games. Principally, they need to have the ability to cruise to high spot within the AFC South, however this unfold is method too excessive towards a Bengals workforce determined to remain alive within the wild card race.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI +8.5

SCORE (O/U 38.5): Jaguars 27, Bengals 24

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-7) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-9) 

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 5.5

CHEWABLE: The Chargers aren’t as unhealthy as they appear. They’ve dropped three in a row, however their 20-10 loss to the Ravens final week was solely the second time they’ve been crushed by greater than a subject aim. Miami edged them by two, Tennessee beat them by three, Dallas beat them by three, Detroit beat them by three and Inexperienced Bay beat them by three. The Patriots, however, are a large number. They’ve misplaced their final 4 and scored a complete of 13 factors of their final two, and their factors differential of -100 is by far the worst within the AFC …  The Chargers nonetheless have the worst cross defence within the league, permitting a mean of 280 yards per recreation, however that weak spot is not going to be exploited by the Patriots. Mac Jones has been pulled from the final two video games, whereas he and Bailey Zappe have mixed for 3 TD passes and 7 interceptions through the present four-game slide … The Patriots have gained the final seven conferences and 10 of the final 11, however in addition they used to have a man named Tom Brady below centre. Extra lately, they’re 1-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 3-13 ATS as a canine over the past two … The Chargers will once more miss Joey Bosa, however they’ve the three finest offensive gamers within the recreation with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. 

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TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS -5.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Chargers 24, Patriots 14

DETROIT LIONS (8-3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-6)

LINE: Detroit by 4

CHEWABLE: The Lions’ defence has turned dreadful of late, together with the 29-22 Thanksgiving Thursday loss to the Packers wherein Jordan Love threw for 268 yards and three TD passes. Within the final 5, Detroit has allowed a mean of 29 factors and slipped to twentieth towards the cross. Usually, this is able to lead one to contemplate backing the Saints, however Derek Carr’s receivers — Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (thigh) and Mike Thomas (knee) — have left him for the infirmary. Olave was restricted in Wednesday’s apply, so there’s an opportunity he might play. If not, Carr’s targets will likely be A.T. Perry, Lynn Bowden Jr. and Keith Kirkwood, a troika that has  mixed for seven catches this season and simply 54 of their careers. Therefore, New Orleans will hope for fulfillment with Alvin Kamara taking handoffs and pitchouts, however solely 4 groups have allowed fewer speeding yards than Detroit’s common of 91.4 allowed per recreation … The Lions will have the ability to transfer the ball alongside the bottom with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs towards the Saints’ Twenty third-ranked run defence, and Amon-Ra St. Brown will likely be an element with out the injured Marshon Lattimore (ankle) shadowing him … The Lions will simply preserve a development that has seen them put collectively a 3-0 ATS file as a street favorite this season.

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TAKING: DETROIT -4

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Lions 28, Saints 17

ATLANTA FALCONS (5-6) at NEW YORK JETS (4-7)

LINE: Atlanta by 2.5

CHEWABLE: The Jets need to be impressed to see Aaron Rodgers again on the apply subject, and so they’re going to need to give him a little bit additional gasoline to finish his miraculous comeback in time to hitch them in a run at a playoff spot. That alone ought to assist them keep away from a fifth straight loss towards a workforce that leads its division with a sub-.500 file … The Falcons halted a three-game successful streak by speeding for 228 yards in a 24-15 win over the Saints final week. The identical system might have success towards the Jets, who’re a putrid thirty first towards the run. However this week, Gang Inexperienced can stack the field with out a lot concern that the quarterback will beat them, as a result of Desmond Ridder gained’t be efficient towards the Jets’ robust secondary. The Jets are going to need to depend on an enormous day from explosive working again Breece Corridor and the Rodgers issue, whereas following a development that has seen them go 22-9 ATS at house following a house loss the final 31 instances that state of affairs has offered itself.

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TAKING: N.Y. JETS +2.5 

SCORE (O/U 34): Jets 13, Falcons 10

ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-10) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-4)

LINE: Pittsburgh by 5.5

CHEWABLE: Who didn’t see this coming? The Steelers had greater than 400 yards of complete offence for the primary time in 46 video games final week, a 16-10 victory over the Bengals coming days after they fired Matt Canada, who had been their OC for the earlier 45. They virtually definitely will transfer the chains with ease once more on Sunday towards the Cardinals, who rank twenty sixth in common yards allowed … Pat Freiermuth was Steelers QB Kenny Pickett’s favorite goal final week, catching 9 passes for 120 yards, however nothing like that type of manufacturing must be anticipated towards the Playing cards, who’re fourth-best within the league with regards to defending tight ends, permitting simply 37.5 yards per recreation. They are going to have the ability to pound and floor Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren towards the Playing cards, who’re thirtieth towards the run … Arizona has solely gained as soon as since Sept. 24, and that was a 25-23 squeaker towards the Falcons in Week 10, Kyler Murray’s first recreation recreation for ACL surgical procedure. However proceed right here with warning. This would be the first recreation for James Conner towards the Steelers, who made him a third-round choose in 2017 and with whom he spend 4 seasons. Conner, who was born and raised two hours from Pittsburgh in Erie, Pa., will be counted on to have an enormous recreation towards a Steelers workforce that ranks twenty second towards the run however has improved because the return of Cameron Heyward. This reeks of one other “win ugly” for the Steelers, who’re 35-44 ATS the final 79 instances they had been favourites of 4-plus factors.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +5.5

SCORE (O/U 41): Steelers 24, Cardinals 20

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-5) at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-7)

LINE: Indianapolis by 1

CHEWABLE: The Colts have gained three in a row however their record of victims — Bryce Younger, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield — has been underwhelming, to say the least. They’ve additionally now misplaced RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) for a couple of weeks, however he’s being changed by Zack Moss, who had 23 carries for 165 yards as Indy defeated the Titans 23-16 in Week 5 … The Titans despatched Frank Reich to the unemployment line with a 17-10 victory over Carolina final week, which stopped their very own three-game shedding streak. Whereas QB Will Levis didn’t exceed 200 passing yards for the third week in a row, he additionally didn’t flip the ball over once more. The Titans relied on Derrick Henry, who had 18 carries for 76 yards and two touchdowns, however he’ll have hassle discovering daylight towards the Colts’ Eleventh-ranked run defence, which held him to 43 yards on 13 carries within the first recreation. Levis should proceed to be accountable and whereas outplaying Gardner Minshew … Resolution-swaying numbers: The Titans are 4-1 at house, the place they’re 3-0 SU as a canine, and coach Mike Vrabel can also be 12-5 SU as a house canine since taking on the workforce in 2018.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +1

SCORE (O/U 42.5): Titans 20, Colts 17

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-3) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-8) 

LINE: Miami by 9.5

CHEWABLE: Most likely the very best factor that might have occurred for individuals who need to again the Dolphins right here is their 34-13 win over the Jets final week, wherein Tua Tagovailoa handed for simply 243 yards with one TD and two picks. Whereas that was towards a defence that ranks sixth in common passing yards allowed, Tua and the Fish will re-establish their standing because the league’s finest aerial assault towards the Commanders, who’ve allowed an NFL-high 29.2 factors per recreation towards whereas additionally giving up essentially the most passing touchdowns and third-most passing yardage … Following their 45-10 loss to the Cowboys final Thursday, the Commanders fired DC Jack Del Rio, which leaves the defensive play-calling duties with head coach Ron Rivera. However except the previous Bears LB is a miracle employee, he gained’t have the ability to stifle Miami’s missile assault … The Dolphins had no hassle disposing of the Jets on Black Friday, however within the win they misplaced cross rusher Jaelan Phillips, considered one of their finest defenders, to a season-ending Achilles harm. Theoretically, which means extra time for Washington QB Sam Howell, who not solely has been sacked greater than some other quarterback, but additionally leads all of the league in makes an attempt, completions and passing yards. He now will face a defence that has improved dramatically with the return of key members from the injured record … Watch out for the canine: the Commanders are 5-2-1 when getting factors.

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TAKING: MIAMI -9.5

SCORE (O/U 49.5): Dolphins 37, Commanders 24

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-1)

LINE: San Francisco by 3 

CHEWABLE: Kyle Shanahan says he has no concept how his workforce will be favourites on the street towards Philadelphia, the one winner of 10 video games this season and on the identical venue wherein the Niners misplaced the NFC Championship recreation by a 31-7 margin simply 10 months in the past. It most likely has a lot to do with the truth that recreation would have been a lot nearer had the Niners not misplaced Brock Purdy to a elbow harm after he accomplished his first 4 passes and that backup Josh Johnson was horrible, and that San Fran fumbled thrice and the Eagles didn’t flip the ball over in any respect … Probably the most precious non-quarterback within the NFL is Christian McCaffrey, who had 106 yards from scrimmage within the title recreation and heading into Week 13 had a 154 yard lead within the race for the speeding title. “Run CMC” may have a yard time discovering area towards the No. 3 ranked Eagles run defence, however the identical goes for Philly RB D’Andrew Swift, who has averaged six yards a carry with 26 makes an attempt over the past two video games towards the Payments and Chiefs and now faces the Niners, who’re No. 2 towards the run … The Eagles are anticipated to get All-Professional proper sort out Lane Johnson again for this one. His return will assist the working recreation and purchase extra time for Hurts towards the Niners imposing cross rush. The one distinct edge San Fran has is in cross defence. Niners are ranked twelfth whereas the Eagles, due to hassle defending exterior receivers, are twenty ninth … It comes right down to which is the larger motivating issue, the Niners in search of revenge or the Eagles in search of respect. I truly consider the Niners are the higher all-round workforce, however I’m siding with the  house canine that by no means anticipated to be one.

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TAKING: PHILADELPHIA +3

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Niners 30, Eagles 28

CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-4) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-6)

LINE: L.A. Rams by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Joe Flacco will begin for the Browns if Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn’t emerge from concussion protocol, and would that actually be a nasty factor for Cleveland? Flacco, 38, threw 5 TD passes and three interceptions in 5 video games for the Jets final season. The worst factor about him is his lack of mobility, however DTR can run and he threw three picks in his first of simply three profession begins. Extra regarding is that Myles Garrett (shoulder) was considered one of 10 Browns to overlook Wednesday’s apply. If he can play, and coach Kevin Stefanski is optimistic he can, all just isn’t misplaced for the guests as they continue to be within the battle for the AFC North title … The Rams had been offensively dominant of their 37-14 win over the Cardinals final week — together with 143 speeding yards for Kyren Williams in his return from the IR — however Arizona doesn’t defend properly. Cleveland’s defence continues to be the very best within the NFL, and it’ll hold the Browns within the recreation regardless of who their QB is.

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TAKING: CLEVELAND +3.5

SCORE (O/U 40): Rams 17, Browns 14

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-3) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-6) 

LINE: Kansas Metropolis by 6

CHEWABLE: Now not is Jordan Love a turnover machine, and now not can the Packers be discounted from the NFC wild card race. Inexperienced Bay has been SU winner whereas being an underdog the previous two weeks, together with a formidable 29-22 Thanksgiving Thursday victory in Detroit. Love dissected the Lions secondary and now has eight TD passes with solely two interceptions in his 4 video games … The defending champs defeated the Raiders 31-17 final week for his or her second win in 4 video games. They nonetheless have a stellar, fourth ranked defence, an explosive working RB in Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes, however they’re additionally caught with a gaggle of slippery-fingered receivers who’ve helped Okay.C. jumped to a commanding main within the NFL’s most passes dropped division with 24. If neither RB A.J. Dillon nor Aaron Jones can play, the Packers won’t be able to make the most of a Chiefs run defence that has slipped to nineteenth … Inexperienced Bay might have as many as 4 of their injured defensive backs return for this one, together with All-Professional CB Jaire Alexander, in addition to stud LB De’Vondre Campbell. Banking on no less than a number of the sidelined defenders to return for the essential showdown at Lambeau.

TAKING: GREEN BAY +6

SCORE (O/U 42.5): Chiefs 23, Packers 18

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